Positive Mathematical Programming for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Analysis: Review and Practice

Frahan, Bruno Henry de; Buysse, Jeroen; Polomé, Philippe; Fernagut, Bruno; Harmignie, Olivier; Lauwers, Ludwig; Huylenbroeck, Guido Van; Meensel, Jef Van

doi:10.1007/978-0-387-71815-6_8

Cited by 67 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Further, the model incorporates all the available information, and it uses calibrated parameters to model all the conditions that -due to lack of data-could not be considered in an explicit way. The model is consistent with economic theory, and its structure is flexible enough to incorporate all relevant environmental constraints and policy instruments (Howitt, 1995;Heckelei, 2002;Howitt, 2005;de Frahan et al, 2007;Heckelei et al, 2012).…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 78%

“…Agricultural supply models in their multiple versions have been applied to several agricultural issues, including models analyzing the expected impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in regions such as Belgium, UK, Greece, Germany, and Sweden (de Frahan et al, 2007;Blanco et al, 2008;Mattas et al, 2011). Other applications include the estimation of the economic value of water and land (Howitt et al, 2001;Iglesias and Blanco, 2008;Medellín-Azuara et al, 2009;Kan et al, 2009), and climate change impacts (Henseler et al, 2009;Howitt et al, 2010;Medellín-Azuara et al, 2011;Howitt et al, 2012) (for reviews of other case studies see Heckelei et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The economic impacts of climate change on the Chilean agricultural sector. A non-linear agricultural supply model

Oliva¹,

Blanco

Giupponi

2014

Chilean J. Agric. Res.

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Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades, with impacts threatening agricultural production in general and food security in particular. Within this context, climate change will impose a challenge to policy makers, especially in those countries that based their development on primary sectors. In this paper we present a non-linear agricultural supply model for the analysis of the economic impacts of changes in crop yields due to climate change. The model accounts for uncertainty through the use of Monte Carlo simulations about crop yields. According to our results, climate change impacts on the Chilean agricultural sector are widespread, with considerable distributional consequences across regions, and with fruits producers being worst-off than crops producers. In general, the results reported here are consistent with those reported by previous studies showing large economic impacts on the northern zone. However, our model does not simulate remarkable economic consequences at the country level as previous studies did.

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Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 78%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic impacts of climate change on the Chilean agricultural sector. A non-linear agricultural supply model

Oliva¹,

Blanco

Giupponi

2014

Chilean J. Agric. Res.

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“…However, a PMP approach relies on adding calibration constraints to an LP model, as a substitute when structural model specifications and validation are unavailable [de Frahan et al, 2007], and this can limit the reliability of the approach [Heckelei and Wolff, 2003]. The LP model alternative is to include farmers' choices among technologies explicitly as separate activities rather than devising an implicit representation in continuous form.…”

Section: The Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future water conflicts in the Upper Klamath Basin: An economic appraisal

Boehlert¹,

Jaeger

2010

Water Resources Research

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[1] The water conflict in the Upper Klamath Basin typifies the growing competition between agricultural and environmental water uses. In 2001, drought conditions triggered Endangered Species Act-related requirements that curtailed irrigation diversions to the Klamath Reclamation Project, costing irrigators tens of millions of dollars. Although this event has significantly elevated the perceived risk of future economic catastrophe in the basin (and therefore the level of conflict among water users), several key changes related to water availability have occurred since 2001. These changes include reduced ESA requirements and increased groundwater pumping capacity, which have lowered the actual risk and severity of future water shortages. In this paper, we use a mathematical programming model to evaluate how these changes alter the likelihood and economic consequences of future shortages. We also consider the effect of more flexible transfers among irrigators via water markets. Our analysis indicates that future drought conditions like those seen in 2001 would have more modest economic impacts than in 2001 and that when combined with contingent groundwater supplementation and water transfer mechanisms such as water markets, both the likelihood and magnitude of economic losses among irrigators would be greatly reduced.

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“…For instance, the Water Framework Directive (OJ, 2000) aims to achieve a good water status for with limited information has extended the use of Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) to simulate farmers' behaviour and to obtain water demands of which many are reported, for example, in Heckelei and Britz (2005) and in De Frahan et al (2007). The general idea of PMP consist, first, in using information contained in dual variables of the calibration constraints to bound the solution of the linear profit maximizing problem to the observed activity levels 1 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing irrigation efficiency improvements by using a preference revelation model

Gutiérrez‐Martín

Gómez

1970

Span. j. agric. res.

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This paper develops a general preference model to explain farmers' decisions. Contrary to better known and most commonly used simulation models, the one presented in this paper allows to calibrate, simulate and explain farmers' decisions without assuming linear preferences (as in many multi criteria decision models) or unobservable implicit cost functions (as in positive mathematical programming models). The model is calibrated for crop decisions in the Genil Cabra irrigated area in the Guadalquivir valley (South Spain) as the resulting empirical model is used to study how farmers react by adjusting these decisions when efficiency in the use of water is improved under different scenarios regarding water use rights. The main conclusion of the paper is that the potential water savings from enhancing irrigation technique (636 m 3 ha -1 ) are overcome by increasing water demand due to higher per drop water productivity when sunflower is replaced by maize. For that reason water price increases and/or reduction of water use rights is a necessary condition to convert water savings through improved efficiency into lower water use and better conserved water sources.Additional key words: agricultural policy; mathematical programming; water demand for irrigation. ResumenEvaluación de la mejora de la eficiencia del regadío utilizando un modelo de revelación de preferencias El artículo presenta un modelo de revelación de preferencias que permite explicar las decisiones de cultivo de los regantes. Al contrario de los modelos de simulación más conocidos y utilizados, el que se presenta en este trabajo no exige asumir preferencias lineales (como en el caso de las técnicas multicriterio) ni acude a funciones inobservables de costes implícitos (como en los modelos de programación matemática positiva). El modelo propuesto se calibra para la comarca agraria del Genil Cabra en el valle del Guadalquivir (sur de España) y el modelo empírico resultante se utiliza para estudiar las reacciones de los agricultores a las mejoras en la técnica de riego bajo distintos contextos de derechos de propiedad. La principal conclusión del trabajo es que los ahorros potenciales de agua que se consiguen con la mejora técnica del sistema de riego (636 m 3 ha -1 ) son compensados por los aumentos de la demanda derivados de la mayor productividad del agua cuando el girasol es sustituido por maíz. Por este motivo, para conseguir una reducción efectiva del uso del agua y, por tanto, una mejora en las fuentes del recurso, es necesario aumentar los precios y/o reducir la cantidad de derechos de propiedad.Palabras clave adicionales: demanda de agua

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Positive Mathematical Programming for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Analysis: Review and Practice

Cited by 67 publications

References 10 publications

The economic impacts of climate change on the Chilean agricultural sector. A non-linear agricultural supply model

The economic impacts of climate change on the Chilean agricultural sector. A non-linear agricultural supply model

Past and future water conflicts in the Upper Klamath Basin: An economic appraisal

Assessing irrigation efficiency improvements by using a preference revelation model

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