Populism and health. An evaluation of the effects of right-wing populism on the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

Abstract

What are the effects of right-wing populism in the struggle against COVID-19? We explore data from Brazil, a country whose populist radical right-wing president was among the prominent denialists regarding the effects of the pandemic. Using cross-sectional and weekly-panel data for 5,570 municipalities during 2020, we present evidence that social distancing was weakened, and the number of cases and deaths were higher in places where the president had received greater electoral support during the 2018 presidential elections. Placebo tests using traditional right-wing vote and data on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) before the pandemic outbreak indicate that the former does not correlate with health outcomes, and the populist share of the vote does not correlate with the latter. Hence, we find strong indications that right-wing populism relates to a poor response to the disease.

Authoritarian populism and response to COVID‐19: A comparative study of the United States, India, and Brazil

“…Institutional statistics and research scholars while mentioning Trump, Modi, and Bolsonaro have argued that populists in power performed ineptly during COVID‐19. Studies have also shown similar trends of populist leaders' performing poorly against the pandemic (Bayerlein et al, 2021; Fernandes, & de lo Lopes Fernandes, 2022; Guest, 2020). Studies illustrate that populist leaders in India performed poorly while displaying populist features in pandemic responses (Prasad, 2020; Naushirvanov et al, 2022).…”

“…Institutional statistics and research scholars while mentioning Trump, Modi, and Bolsonaro have argued that populists in power performed ineptly during COVID-19. Studies have also shown similar trends of populist leaders' performing poorly against the pandemic(Bayerlein et al, 2021;Fernandes, & de lo Lopes Fernandes, 2022;…”

“…The outbreak of Coronavirus pandemic provided one major theme to determine populist response to crisis situations (Lasco, 2020; Touchton et al, 2023). Scholarly research also explored the role of populism on the management of emergency crisis and the impact on health (Fernandes, & de lo Lopes Fernandes, 2022). Perspectives on the perilous mix of populism and lessons from COVID‐19 appeared based on extensive case studies (Touchton et al, 2023).…”

“…Theoretically, populist discourse settled for a middle ground between both identity politics on the one hand and nationalism on the other (Mudde & Kaltwasser, 2017) With theoretical clarity established on populism in academic circles, scholarship explored populism's inter‐linkage with democracy and the conduct of mass politics (Cunha & Cassimiro, 2022; Juha Herkman, 2022). More studies appeared on populism with the advent of COVID‐19, which offered preliminary research on the correlation between populism, health, and emergency crisis (Eberl et al, 2021; Fernandes, & de lo Lopes Fernandes, 2022; Prasad, 2020).…”

A Farewell to Arms: Brazilian Politics and Blame Avoidance during the COVID‐19 Pandemic

“…The theoretical framework adds to the literature discussing the effect of denialism and populism on COVID‐19 in Brazil (Fernandes and Fernandes, 2022) and other countries such as the United States and Mexico (Lasco, 2020). These previous findings are reinforced by ascertaining what political strategy underlies the actions of populist political leaders who seek blame‐shifting for their failures and the reification of economic problems (Hatzikidi, 2020).…”