Population Trends in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan America: Selective Deconcentration and the Rural Rebound

Abstract

This study uses revised annual population estimates that incorporate adjustments from the 2000 Census to backcast demographic change for U.S. counties during the 1990s. These data are supplemented with new post-censal population estimates for 2001-2003. We use these data to examine demographic trends in the late 1990s and first years of the new century. Our findings are consistent with a model suggesting that a selective deconcentration of the U.S. population is underway. Our findings also confirm the occurrence of the rural rebound in the first half of the 1990s and a waning of this rebound in the late 1990s. Post-censal data also suggest a modest upturn in nonmetropolitan population growth rates in 2001-2003.

Theories of Urban Dynamics

“…This was soon detected by Beale [5] and Cromartie [6], while Johnson et al [7] later ratified the trend. A new trend thus came to light in favour of the prourban thesis.…”

“…The data presented by Johnson et al [7] reflects that all North American habitats grew throughout the second half of the twentieth century. This growth, nevertheless, was unequal, depending on the urban nature thereof.…”

“…On the other hand, it is indispensable to understand that these are three types of relevant spaces to interpret the territorial dynamics [24]. Between the classic studies that develop these concepts and variations among different countries, it is necessary to mention van den Berg et al [25], Hall and Hay [26], Johnson et al [7], and Turok and Mykhnenko [11].…”

“…In the new millennium, a series of studies were published, demystifying counterurban theses even more clearly. The empirical analysis of interior migration data enabled the discovery of how the North American rebound in the early 1990s went backwards in the second half of the decade [5][6][7]54], measured in terms of net migration.…”

“…The identification of new metropolitan counties-those that were initially nonmetropolitan, but due to the expansion of a metropolitan area are included therein-sums up the location of the growth in quite a significant way, Johnson and collaborators [7]. International Journal of Population Research those that are considered metropolitan permanently are subdivided into two groups: the "metropolitan core" counties were already densely settled by 1963 (they contain most of the nation's older and larger central cities as well as many older inner suburbs); "metropolitan noncore" counties that were already metropolitan by 1963, but were outside these metro cores.…”