Population Trend of the World’s Monitored Seabirds, 1950-2010

Paleczny, Michelle; Hammill, Edd; Karpouzi, Vasiliki; Pauly, Daniel

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0129342

Cited by 308 publications

(263 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…falling below the minimum viable population threshold (N ewton 1998), in the next 200 yr. The decreasing trend projected for this population (around 22% in 100 yr) is in accordance with general seabird population trends, which have recorded a decrease of 69.7% in the last 60 yr (Paleczny et al 2015). In addition to environmental stochasticity, human activities such as commercial fisheries may have a direct or indirect effect on petrels by depleting the standing and spawning biomass of prey species.…”

Section: Forecasting the Impacts Of Ocean Warmingsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…These changes could positively affect nesting seabirds by allowing higher fledging survival (Soldatini et al 2014). On the other hand, a generalized rise in temperature could affect the entire marine food web, with unpredictable consequences for seabird population trends (Paleczny et al 2015).…”

Section: Global Climatic Oscillations and Environmental Variability Imentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel

Soldatini

Albores‐Barajas

Massa

et al. 2016

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Bottom-up climatic forcing has been shown to be influential for a variety of marine taxa, but evidence on seabird populations is scarce. Seasonal variation in environmental conditions can have an indirect effect on subsequent reproduction, which, given the longevity and single-brooding of seabirds, may affect population dynamics. Our study focuses on linking the effect of oceanographic conditions (from 1991 to 2013) to the fecundity and consequently population growth rate of the Mediterranean subspecies of the European storm petrel Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis. In this study, we examined 23 yr of > 5400 capture-mark−recaptures (CMR) and modelled the probability of skipping reproduction as a function of oceanographic variables using CMR models. We demonstrate that a decrease in sea surface temperature in the pre-breeding period negatively influences skipping propensity, and therefore hypothesize that this behaviour would have significant influence on population abundance over time. For this reason, we analysed population growth as a function of skipping probability as affected by oceanographic conditions. We used stochastic demographic models to forecast the fate of the population, and evaluated contrasted environmental condition scenarios. As a result, we found that a decrease in frequency of cold winter events would probably reduce skipping propensity, with a positive effect on the population as a whole.

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Section: Forecasting the Impacts Of Ocean Warmingsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Global Climatic Oscillations and Environmental Variability Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel

Soldatini

Albores‐Barajas

Massa

et al. 2016

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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“…Seabirds and anadromous fish are two important animal groups for the transport of nutrients from sea to land. Both groups are also facing pressure, and 27% of all seabirds are classified as threatened (critically endangered, endangered, or vulnerable), and the largest of all seabirds, the albatross, is the most endangered, with up to 75% of albatross species considered threatened or endangered (22)(23)(24)]. Likewise, populations of anadromous fish have declined to less than 10% of their historical numbers in the Pacific Northwest (25) and both the northeastern and northwestern Atlantic (26,27).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Global nutrient transport in a world of giants

Doughty

Roman

Faurby

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

346

333

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The past was a world of giants, with abundant whales in the sea and large animals roaming the land. However, that world came to an end following massive late-Quaternary megafauna extinctions on land and widespread population reductions in great whale populations over the past few centuries. These losses are likely to have had important consequences for broad-scale nutrient cycling, because recent literature suggests that large animals disproportionately drive nutrient movement. We estimate that the capacity of animals to move nutrients away from concentration patches has decreased to about 8% of the preextinction value on land and about 5% of historic values in oceans. For phosphorus (P), a key nutrient, upward movement in the ocean by marine mammals is about 23% of its former capacity (previously about 340 million kg of P per year). Movements by seabirds and anadromous fish provide important transfer of nutrients from the sea to land, totalling ∼150 million kg of P per year globally in the past, a transfer that has declined to less than 4% of this value as a result of the decimation of seabird colonies and anadromous fish populations. We propose that in the past, marine mammals, seabirds, anadromous fish, and terrestrial animals likely formed an interlinked system recycling nutrients from the ocean depths to the continental interiors, with marine mammals moving nutrients from the deep sea to surface waters, seabirds and anadromous fish moving nutrients from the ocean to land, and large animals moving nutrients away from hotspots into the continental interior. There were giants in the world in those days.Genesis 6:4, King James version T he past was a world of giants, with abundant whales in the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems teeming with large animals. However, most ecosystems lost their large animals, with around 150 mammal megafaunal (here, defined as ≥44 kg of body mass) species going extinct in the late Pleistocene and early Holocene (1, 2). These extinctions and range declines continued up through historical times and, in many cases, into the present (3). No global extinctions are known for any marine whales, but whale densities might have declined between 66% and 99% (4-6). Some of the largest species have experienced severe declines; for example, in the Southern Hemisphere, blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) have been reduced to 1% of their historical numbers as a result of commercial whaling (4). Much effort has been devoted to determining the cause of the extinctions and declines, with less effort focusing on the ecological impacts of the extinctions. Here, we focus on the ecological impacts, with a specific focus on how nutrient dynamics may have changed on land following the lateQuaternary megafauna extinctions, and in the sea and air following historical hunting pressures.Most biogeochemists studying nutrient cycling focus on in situ production, such as weathering or biological nitrogen (N) fixation, largely ignoring lateral fluxes by animals because they are considered of secondary importance (...

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“…The effectiveness of advising conservation decisions based on the movements of individuals ultimately depends on the clarity with which we concede the limitations of the data and subsequent analyses. This is especially important for wideranging pelagic seabirds, as these families have experienced the largest documented population declines (Paleczny et al, 2015) and have high potential for individual variability in movements across the oceans they inhabit relative to shorter-ranging and coastal species. For most marine wildlife tracking studies, the number of individuals successfully tracked falls short of an "ideal" (i.e., statistically robust and biologically relevant) sample size.…”

Section: Kernel Contour Locations Were Determined From Pooled Kde Itementioning

confidence: 99%

Individual-level Variation and Higher-level Interpretations of Space Use in Wide-ranging Species: An Albatross Case Study of Sampling Effects

et al. 2015

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Marine ecologists and managers need to know the spatial extent of at-sea areas most frequented by the groups of wildlife they study or manage. Defining group-specific ranges and distributions (i.e., space use at the level of species, population, age-class, etc.) can help to identify the source or severity of common or distinct threats among different at-risk groups. In biologging studies, this is accomplished by estimating the space use of a group based on a sample of tracked individuals. A major assumption of these studies is consistency in individual movements among members of a group. The implications of scaling up individual-level tracking data to infer higher-level spatial patterns for groups (i.e., size and extent of areas used, overlap or segregation among groups) is not well documented for wide-ranging pelagic species with high potential for individual variation in space use. We present a case study exploring the effects of sampling (i.e., number and identity of individuals contributing to an analysis) on defining group-specific space use with year-round multi-colony tracking data from two highly vagile species, Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed (P. nigripes) albatrosses. The results clearly demonstrate that caution is warranted when defining space use for a specific species-colony-period group based on datasets of small, intermediate, or relatively large sample sizes (ranging from n = 3-42 tracked individuals) due to a high degree of individual-level variation in movements. Overall, we provide further support to the recommendation that biologging studies aiming to define higher-level patterns in space use exercise restraint in the scope of inference, particularly when pooled Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) techniques are applied to small datasets for wide-ranging species. Transparent reporting in respect to the potential limitations of the data can in turn better inform both biological interpretations and science-based management decisions.

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Population Trend of the World’s Monitored Seabirds, 1950-2010

Cited by 308 publications

References 31 publications

Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel

Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel

Global nutrient transport in a world of giants

Individual-level Variation and Higher-level Interpretations of Space Use in Wide-ranging Species: An Albatross Case Study of Sampling Effects

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