Population Sustainability in Rural Communities: the Case of Two British National Parks

Marshall, Alan; Simpson, Ludi

doi:10.1007/s12061-008-9017-1

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Marshall and Simpson (2009) implement household and labour force projections for small areas in Britain. The POPGROUP software provides for such 'derived forecasts' of the labour force, households, disabled population or other characteristics, using user-defined age-sex plans suited to available data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of local demographic variation in a flexible framework for population projections

Simpson

Snowling²

2011

J Pop Research

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A cohort component projection of local populations based on sex and single year of age offers great value for planning local services, but demands data beyond the detail available. Local fertility, mortality and migration schedules by age and sex must be estimated sensitively to local variation if the results are to be of greater value than simpler methods of projection. Two approaches are compared, using data for the recent past: (a) direct estimation of local area age-specific schedules of fertility, mortality and migration based on data available to the national statistical agency; (b) graduation of national schedules using only local area population estimates by age, total numbers of births, and total numbers of deaths; agespecific migration is indirectly estimated from successive population estimates. These two approaches are compared with a projection using the same rates for each area. The three projections have been implemented for electoral wards in the Fife local government area of Scotland, using the flexible framework provided by POPGROUP software. Persuasive local population projections based on standard data for standard areas are feasible without the regular publication of migration flows.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of local demographic variation in a flexible framework for population projections

Simpson

Snowling²

2011

J Pop Research

Self Cite

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“…This allows changes in population age structure to influence average household size. Marshall and Simpson ( 2009 ) and Simpson ( 2017 ) describe how dwelling-led projections for local areas in the UK-based POPGROUP software are produced in this way. Migration is adjusted in volume (but not age pattern) so that population and household forecasts are consistent with assumed dwelling numbers.…”

Section: Small Area Population Forecasting Methods 2001–2020mentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs

Wilson

Grossman

Alexander

et al. 2021

Popul Res Policy Rev

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Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major investment decisions. Yet, the toolbox of small area population forecasting methods and techniques is modest relative to that for national and large subnational regional forecasting. In this paper, we assess the current state of small area population forecasting, and suggest areas for further research. The paper provides a review of the literature on small area population forecasting methods published over the period 2001–2020. The key themes covered by the review are extrapolative and comparative methods, simplified cohort-component methods, model averaging and combining, incorporating socioeconomic variables and spatial relationships, ‘downscaling’ and disaggregation approaches, linking population with housing, estimating and projecting small area component input data, microsimulation, machine learning, and forecast uncertainty. Several avenues for further research are then suggested, including more work on model averaging and combining, developing new forecasting methods for situations which current models cannot handle, quantifying uncertainty, exploring methodologies such as machine learning and spatial statistics, creating user-friendly tools for practitioners, and understanding more about how forecasts are used. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-021-09671-6.

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“…This allows changes in population age structure to influence average household size. Marshall and Simpson (2009) and Simpson (2017) describe how dwelling-led projections for local areas in the UK-based POPGROUP software are produced in this way. Migration is adjusted in volume (but not age pattern) so that population and household forecasts are consistent with assumed dwelling numbers.…”

Section: Linking Population With Housingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors note that due to data limitations and well as burdensome computation requirements, forecasts below the municipality level were problematic. Marshall, A., & Simpson, L. (2009). Population sustainability in rural communities: The case of two British national parks.…”

Section: Declarationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for small area population forecasts: state-of-the-art and research needs

Wilson¹,

Grossman²,

Alexander³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major investment decisions. Yet the toolbox of small area population forecasting methods and techniques is modest relative to that for national and large subnational regional forecasting. In this paper we assess the current state of small area population forecasting, and suggest areas for further research. The paper provides a review of the literature on small area population forecasting methods published over the period 2001-2020. The key themes covered by the review are: extrapolative and comparative methods, simplified cohort-component methods, model averaging and combining, incorporating socio-economic variables and spatial relationships, ‘downscaling’ and disaggregation approaches, linking population with housing, estimating and projecting small area component input data, microsimulation, machine learning, and forecast uncertainty. Several avenues for further research are then suggested, including more work on model averaging and combining, developing new forecasting methods for situations which current models cannot handle, quantifying uncertainty, exploring methodologies such as machine learning and spatial statistics, creating user-friendly tools for practitioners, and understanding more about how forecasts are used.

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Population Sustainability in Rural Communities: the Case of Two British National Parks

Cited by 7 publications

References 7 publications

Estimation of local demographic variation in a flexible framework for population projections

Estimation of local demographic variation in a flexible framework for population projections

Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs

Methods for small area population forecasts: state-of-the-art and research needs

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