Population sex imbalance in China before the One-Child Policy

Abstract

Most research on population sex imbalance in China has focused on the One-Child Policy era. However, because much of China's fertility decline occurred during the 1970s, we investigate the possibility that sex ratios began rising during this period (as predicted by theory) before the One-Child Policy. RESULTS Analyzing sex ratios between 1960 and 1987 by birth order and sibship sex composition, we find that among the subset of couples expected to have the greatest demand for sons (those at higher parities without previous sons), sex ratios at birth reached 115-121 boys per 100 girls during the 1970s-implying approximately 840,000 to 1,100,000 girls missing from Chinese birth cohorts during the 1970s. Importantly, these results do not appear to be driven by differential under-reporting of living girls, or instances of adoption. Given the absence of ultrasound technologies prior to 1979, they imply the presence of postnatal sex selection in China during the 1970s. CONTRIBUTION Our work makes several important contributions to existing literature. First, we focus on the subset of couples among whom the demand for sons is predicted to be the strongest: higher parity couples not yet having a boy. Second, we estimate sex ratios by single year of age (from birth to age 4), distinguishing differential rates of infant death from more gradual neglect of girls as they age throughout childhood. Third, we

The Limits and Consequences of Population Policy: Evidence from China's Wan Xi Shao Campaign

“…Figure 11 also shows the emergence of postnatal sex selection under the policy, with the share of couples using postnatal selection rising from nil to 0.32% of couples. Despite the relatively low rate of postnatal selection, our results nonetheless imply about 200,000 missing girls in China directly attributable to the LLF policy, roughly 21% of the 955,000 missing girls in China during the 1970s (Babiarz et al, 2019). 62…”

“…Figure 2 shows that sex selection behavior may in fact have risen during the 1970s (earlier than generally recognized). Among couples presumably having the greatest demand for sons (those having children at third or higher parity -and not yet having a boy), sex ratios at birth actually rose as high as 115-121 by the end of the 1970s (Babiarz et al, 2019). Because this increase in sex ratios at birth occurred before ultrasound technology was generally available, it could also suggest a resurgence of infant abandonment or infanticide.…”

“…Scaling the sex ratios at birth in Figure 2 by the size of China's population during the 1970s, these ratios imply over 950,000 additional missing girls in China (Babiarz et al, 2019). 20…”

“…(2) postnatal sex selection (hereafter "postnatal selection") through relative underinvestment in girls -and in the extreme, female infanticide. 8 There is aggregate time-series evidence that the LLF policy coincided with increasing use of sex composition strategies in Chinaboth through greater use of stopping rules (Arnold and Zhaoxiang, 1986), which do not alter population sex ratios, and through postnatal sex selection (at third and higher parity births among couples without a son -see Figure 2), producing male-biased sex ratios (Coale and Banister, 1994;Babiarz et al, 2019). 9 If the LLF policy did in fact contribute to population sex imbalance, this would represent an important unintended consequence of population policy.…”

Population aging caused by a rise in the sex ratio at birth

“…A sex ratio at birth (SRB) of 1.05 male births to 1 female birth is considered biologically stable (Chahnazarian 1988). Since the late 1970s a rising trend in the SRB in some Asian and Eastern European countries has been evident (Babiarz et al 2019;Cai and Lavely 2003;Chao et al 2019;Guilmoto 2012a;Guilmoto and Ren 2011). Reasons for this trend include prenatal sex selection driven by a rapid decline in fertility, a strong preference for sons, and easy access to sex-selection technologies (Guilmoto 2009(Guilmoto , 2012a(Guilmoto , 2012b(Guilmoto , 2012cKashyap and Villavicencio 2016;Meslé, Vallin, and Badurashvili 2007).…”