Population projections for all U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2015-2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990-2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0-85+), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) for all U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using ARIMA models as inputs into Leslie matrix population projection models and control the projections to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. I validate the methods using ex-post facto evaluations using data from 1969-2000 to project 2000-2015. My results are reasonably accurate for this period. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States.

Sweating the energy bill: Extreme weather, poor households, and the energy spending gap

“…This projection is for the typical household in the U.S. It comes from average changes in each bin of our temperature distribution from 2004-2018 to 2050-2065 under the RCP 8.5 scenario, across the CMIP5 ensemble models fromHsiang et al (2017) andRasmussen and Kopp (2017), combined with a middle-of-the-road county population forecast fromHauer (2019).…”

The Accuracy of Hamilton–Perry Population Projections for Census Tracts in the United States

“…At this level, HP errors ranging between less than 4% and ~ 12% for ages 10-85 + and between 20 and 25% for the 0-4 and 5-9 age intervals are observed (Smith and Tayman 2003;Swanson and Tayman 2017). At the level of U.S. counties or equivalents, the HP method has generally performed well, with errors ranging from 6% to 16% reported in previous comprehensive, nation-wide evaluations in both the U.S. (Sprague 2013;Hauer 2019) and Australia (Wilson 2016).…”

“…In this paper, we use the HP method to develop 10-year population projections (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) at the level of U.S. census tracts and then evaluate them in terms of ex post facto accuracy against the 2010 decennial census counts. While previous research has comprehensively-characterized the accuracy of the HP method and its variants for states and counties in Florida (Smith and Tayman 2003) and U.S. counties (Sprague 2012;Hauer 2019), this paper is the first to report a comprehensive, nation-wide evaluation of projection error for census tracts within the United States. As such, it fills an important gap in the literature around the method and a benchmark against which improvements in the method for small-area demographic analysis may be compared.…”

Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America

“…SSP-specific future population data were obtained at the same spatial resolution as annual projections 24 . These data were subdivided into age categories using SSP-specific future U.S. County-Level Population Projections 40 .…”

“…SSP specific future population data were obtained from the ISIMIP ESGF server. SSP specific future age distributions were obtained from the U.S. County-Level Population Projections 40 .…”