Population processes in European Blackbirds Turdus merula: a state–space approach

Robinson, Robert A.; Baillie, Stephen R.; King, Ruth

doi:10.1007/s10336-010-0612-y

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(67 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This is the effect previously identified for some upland birds as a result of negative impacts of summer temperature upon their invertebrate prey Fletcher et al 2013) and appears greatest in species that prey upon subsurface invertebrates whose larvae are vulnerable to desiccation, such as Diptera, and invertebrates that become less accessible in dry weather, such as Lumbricidae (Pearce-Higgins 2010; Carroll et al 2011). Our results suggest that lagged negative impacts of hot, dry summer weather may affect more than just upland birds and may be ecologically more important than more direct effects of summer drought that appear to affect post-fledging survival of thrushes (Robinson et al 2004;Robinson, Baillie & King 2012). These conclusions emphasize the importance of research to identify the precise mechanisms that underpin these lagged effects, particularly as it is likely to be through such lagged impacts affecting ecological interactions that climate change may have the greatest impact on species' extinction risk (Cahill et al 2013;Ockendon et al 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Our results suggest that lagged negative impacts of hot, dry summer weather may affect more than just upland birds and may be ecologically more important than more direct effects of summer drought that appear to affect post‐fledging survival of thrushes (Robinson et al . ; Robinson, Baillie & King ). These conclusions emphasize the importance of research to identify the precise mechanisms that underpin these lagged effects, particularly as it is likely to be through such lagged impacts affecting ecological interactions that climate change may have the greatest impact on species’ extinction risk (Cahill et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities

Pearce‐Higgins

Eglington

Martay

et al. 2015

Journal of Animal Ecology

147

144

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Summary1. Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in longdistance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. 2. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. 3. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. 4. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. 5. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. 6. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species' interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants, habitat specialists and cold-associated species.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities

Pearce‐Higgins

Eglington

Martay

et al. 2015

Journal of Animal Ecology

147

144

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The first data set is on Blackbirds for the years [1964][1965][1966][1967][1968][1969][1970][1971][1972][1973][1974][1975][1976][1977][1978][1979][1980][1981][1982][1983]. These data are taken from Robinson, Baillie, and King (2012), can be found in Supporting Information Appendix S1 (Tables S1 and S2), and consist of birds ringed as adults, juveniles, and/or pulli birds during the breeding season (April-September). For this data set, the total numbers of birds ringed for each of the three age categories, pulli, juveniles, and adults, are separately known.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating age‐dependent survival from age‐aggregated ringing data—extending the use of historical records

Jiménez-Muñoz

Cole

Freeman

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Bird ring‐recovery data have been widely used to estimate demographic parameters such as survival probabilities since the mid‐20th century. However, while the total number of birds ringed each year is usually known, historical information on age at ringing is often not available. A standard ring‐recovery model, for which information on age at ringing is required, cannot be used when historical data are incomplete. We develop a new model to estimate age‐dependent survival probabilities from such historical data when age at ringing is not recorded; we call this the historical data model. This new model provides an extension to the model of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651–795 by estimating the proportion of the ringed birds marked as juveniles as an additional parameter. We conduct a simulation study to examine the performance of the historical data model and compare it with other models including the standard and conditional ring‐recovery models. Simulation studies show that the approach of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651–795 can cause bias in parameter estimates. In contrast, the historical data model yields similar parameter estimates to the standard model. Parameter redundancy results show that the newly developed historical data model is comparable to the standard ring‐recovery model, in terms of which parameters can be estimated, and has fewer identifiability issues than the conditional model. We illustrate the new proposed model using Blackbird and Sandwich Tern data. The new historical data model allows us to make full use of historical data and estimate the same parameters as the standard model with incomplete data, and in doing so, detect potential changes in demographic parameters further back in time.

show abstract

“…The blackbird is an excellent model to study variations in production because it is widespread and abundant, it breeds in most habitats and nests are easy to locate (Paradis et al 2000, Robinson et al 2012. The blackbird is an excellent model to study variations in production because it is widespread and abundant, it breeds in most habitats and nests are easy to locate (Paradis et al 2000, Robinson et al 2012.…”

Section: Study Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We chose to investigate the environmental factors affecting nesting success of the common blackbird. The blackbird is an excellent model to study variations in production because it is widespread and abundant, it breeds in most habitats and nests are easy to locate (Paradis et al 2000, Robinson et al 2012. We used 2,985 nests monitored over the period 2003-2011 in our analysis, with the number of nests used per year ranging from 436 to 831.…”

Section: Study Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi‐state, multi‐stage modeling of nest‐success suggests interaction between weather and land‐use

Leech

Pearce‐Higgins

Robinson

2017

Ecology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Many factors may affect daily nest survival. We present a novel multi-state, multi-stage model to estimate daily survival for each nest stage, daily hatching probability and probability that a failed nest died during a specific stage when stage of failure is unknown. The model does not require that hatching date be known. We used data from a large citizen science dataset to demonstrate the application of this approach, exploring the impact of laying dates, weather conditions, conserved soil moisture, soil carbon, habitat type and urbanization on failure rates of common blackbird (Turdus merula) nests. Models selected and estimates of nest success were similar to those of the simpler logistic exposure method, but accounted for additional uncertainty. Simulations suggest the multi-state approach performs better when incubation mortality is affected by nest age, but not when incubation mortality is assumed constant. Both approaches worked best when date of incubation initiation was known for all nests first visited during the incubation stage. Daily blackbird survival probabilities were higher in human rural habitat than in urban or countryside habitats supporting the hypothesis that these intermediate habitats offer a better balance between low food availability in urban areas and high predation rates in the wider countryside. Nest success was influenced more by recent precipitation in urban habitats, but by a longer-term measure of water availability, soil moisture, in non-human dominated habitats, indicating that climatic change is likely to alter relationships between habitat and breeding success (and their temporal scale) by influencing the trade-off between food availability and predation rates. The multi-state, multi-stage model developed here may be helpful to other researchers modelling ecological processes in which transition probabilities between multiple stages are of interest.

show abstract

Population processes in European Blackbirds Turdus merula: a state–space approach

Cited by 15 publications

References 49 publications

Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities

Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities

Estimating age‐dependent survival from age‐aggregated ringing data—extending the use of historical records

Multi‐state, multi‐stage modeling of nest‐success suggests interaction between weather and land‐use

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About