Population, Plague and Social Change in Rural Pistoia, 1201–1430¹

Evolution and proximate expression of human paternal investment.

“…Moreover, the mortality risks of these "illegitimate" children were reduced if the father provided some economic support to the child and its mother, and the mortality rates of "legitimate" children increased if the father died, as is found in developing nations today. A relation between paternal provisioning and infant and child mortality risks has in fact been reported throughout preindustrial and industrializing Europe and the United States (Hed, 1987;Herlihy, 1965;Klindworth & Voland, 1995;Morrison, Kirshner, & Molho, 1977;Schultz, 1991;Vallin, 1991;Voland, 1988).…”

“…In modern society, SES is often influenced by maternal employment, and in preindustrial and industrializing Europe, SES was influenced, in some cases, by any dowry provided by the wife's family. Moreover, infant and child mortality rates are also related to maternal and paternal educational levels, even when SES is statistically controlled, in developing nations today and in preindustrial Europe (Herlihy, 1965;United Nations, 1985). It appears that better educated parents, especially mothers, are more likely to seek medical services, as contrasted with folk remedies, and to implement new health-related advances (e.g., hygiene in industrializing Europe), which often reduce infant and child mortality risks.…”

Evolution of Paternal Investment

“…Overall, it appears that there is a strong, direct association between stable family relationships and low levels of child mortality, although the direction of causation cannot be inferred from the dataʺ (United Nations, 1985, p. 227). The same pattern was found throughout preindustrial and industrializing Europe and the United States (Herlihy, 1965;Klindworth & Voland, 1995;Morrison, Kirshner, & Molho, 1977;Schultz, 1991). In an analysis of demographic records from eighteenth century Berlin, Schultz found a strong correlation (r = .74) between socioeconomic status (SES, a composite of income, educational level, and occupational status) and infant and child mortality rates; SES was defined in part by paternal occupation.…”

Economic-Demographic Interactions in Long-Run Growth

“…Clark's (2007) calculations from wage data reach a broadly comparable conclusion for aggregate English population. Tuscan population decline was apparently even more severe; between 1244 and 1404 the population of the Pistoian countryside fell to less than one third of its former level and the city population fell to one half (Herlihy 1965). In Germany the Thirty Years War of the early seventeenth century was a comparable mortality crisis, with population falling by more than one half (Pfister and Fertig 2010).…”