Population modeling of oilseed brassica aphids and their biocontrol agents with weather parameters in the north-west Himalayan region of India

Abstract

We studied the impact of weather parameters on the population build-up of Brevicoryne brassicae (L.) (Cabbage aphid), Lipaphis erysimi (Kalt.) (Mustard aphid), Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Green peach aphid) and their biocontrol agents (coccinellids, syrphids, and a parasitoid, Diaeretiella rapae M’Intosh) on oilseed brassicas in Himachal Pradesh, India, during winters from 2016–2017 to 2018–2019. The temperature and sunshine resulted in the build-up of B. brassicae and their biocontrol agents’ population, while rainfall and relative humidity caused a negative influence at surveyed locations. The L. erysimi and M. persicae populations showed an inverse correlation with the density-independent factors at most locations. Correlation coefficients indicated a negative correlation of the coccinellids population with the build-up of L. erysimi and M. persicae, while the predator population was positively related to the B. brassicae population at maximum locations. Parasitization by D. rapae showed a negative relationship with the aphid population. Stepwise regression analysis showed that minimum temperature and rainfall had a significant effect on the variability in the population of aphids. The predictive model could interpret more than 90% variation by minimum temperature in the coccinellid population at the surveyed locations. Further, regression analysis with temperature could explain up to 94% variability in parasitization by D. rapae. This study will contribute to predicting the changes that may occur in a population of aphids concerning the weather.