Population Mobility, Lockdowns, and COVID-19 Control: An Analysis Based on Google Location Data and Doubling Time from India

Abstract

Objectives: Physical distancing is a control measure against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Lockdowns are a strategy to enforce physical distancing in urban areas, but they are drastic measures. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of the lockdown measures taken in the world’s second-most populous country, India, by exploring their relationship with community mobility patterns and the doubling time of COVID-19.Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis based on community mobility patterns, the stringency index of lockdown measures, and the doubling time of COVID-19 cases in India between February 15 and April 26, 2020. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between the stringency index, community mobility patterns, and the doubling time of COVID-19 cases. Multiple linear regression was applied to predict the doubling time of COVID-19.Results: Community mobility drastically fell after the lockdown was instituted. The doubling time of COVID-19 cases was negatively correlated with population mobility patterns in outdoor areas (r = –0.45 to –0.58). The stringency index and outdoor mobility patterns were also negatively correlated (r = –0.89 to –0.95). Population mobility patterns (R2 = 0.67) were found to predict the doubling time of COVID-19, and the model’s predictive power increased when the stringency index was also added (R2 = 0.73).Conclusions: Lockdown measures could effectively ensure physical distancing and reduce short-term case spikes in India. Therefore, lockdown measures may be considered for tailored implementation on an intermittent basis, whenever COVID-19 cases are predicted to exceed the health care system’s capacity to manage.

Lockdowns, Community Mobility Patterns, and COVID-19: A Retrospective Analysis of Data from 16 Countries

“…Social distancing and stringent government measures were reported to be the major predictors of COVID-19 cases and mortality in the United States of American (USA) [ 9 ]. A high stringency index and mobility restrictions improved the doubling time of COVID-19 cases in India [ 10 ]. However, those studies were both limited to a single country.…”

Effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on the incidence of COVID-19 in South Korea

“…Since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, numerous cases and deaths have been reported worldwide ( World Health Organization, 2020 ). Identifying factors influencing the spread of COVID-19 has significant implications for prevention and control ( Han et al, 2022 ; Hatmi, 2021 ; Periyasamy and Venkatesh, 2021 ; Zang et al, 2022 ).…”