Population mobility, demographic, and environmental characteristics of dengue fever epidemics in a major city in Southeastern Brazil, 2007-2015

Abstract

Around 14% of world dengue virus (DENV) cases occur in the Americas, most of them in Brazil. While socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral correlates have been analyzed thoroughly, the role played by population mobility on DENV epidemics, especially at the local level, remains scarce. This study assesses whether the daily pattern of population mobility is associated with DENV incidence in Campinas, a Brazilian major city with over 1.2 million inhabitants in São Paulo State. DENV notifications from 2007 to 2015 were geocoded at street level (n = 114,884) and combined with sociodemographic and environmental data from the 2010 population census. Population mobility was extracted from the Origin-Destination Survey (ODS), carried out in 2011, and daily precipitation was obtained from satellite imagery. Multivariate zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were applied. High population mobility presented a relevant positive effect on higher risk for DENV incidence. High income and residence in apartments were found to be protective characteristics against the disease, while unpaved streets, number of strategic points (such as scrapyards and tire repair shops), and precipitation were consistently risk factors.

Identification of risk areas for arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti in northern Brazil: A One Health analysis

“…On the other hand, Johansen et al [ 23 ] described that despite the fact that most reported cases are in women, they have greater health care and seek health services more often, suggesting the hypothesis of a possible greater underreporting in men, especially of acute diseases, aligned with the vector characteristic of having higher intra and peridomicile prevalence, an environment often frequented by women [ 24 ].…”

How heterogeneous is the dengue transmission profile in Brazil? A study in six Brazilian states

“…Special attention should be devoted to these municipalities capable of maintaining Persistent Transmission even with relatively small populations. Dengue transmission requires a pool of susceptible humans and a large and competent mosquito population [ 24 , 45 , 46 ]. Mosquito population abundance may correlate with human density since the dengue vector is an urban and domestic species [ 10 , 14 , 15 , 19 ].…”

“…Several studies have shown the association between climatic variables and dengue transmission [ 17 , 21 , 24 , 50 , 51 ]. In Ceará, the climate characterized by extended dry seasons may explain the presence of few municipalities with Persistent Transmission profiles, because low humidity and very high temperatures (on average 30°C) negatively influence the vector’s biological cycle.…”

“…Discriminating these different profiles is important for many reasons. First, from an academic perspective, the existence of a critical community size for dengue, above which dengue transmission is more persistent has been debated [21][22][23][24]. Whether this phenomenon can be attributed to local immunity or to environmental conditions is an open question.…”

Relação entre temperatura do ar e incidência de dengue: estudo de séries temporais em Minas Gerais, Brasil (2010-2019)

“…Foi constatado um alto grau de heterogeneidade das medidas de associação na metanálise, de modo que variáveis geográficas e socioeconômicas foram introduzidas no modelo definitivo para a avaliação, mas que, todavia, não causaram alterações relevantes no modelo. Isso leva à possibilidade de que variáveis explicativas de diferenças entre as microrregiões podem estar relacionadas a questões como efetividade de campanhas de educação e prevenção contra a dengue, tipo de urbanização, distribuição espacial de moradias, padrão de residência e mobilidade populacional, fenômenos já descritos na literatura com o potencial afetar a incidência da dengue 37,38 . Entretanto, essas variáveis são de difícil mensuração ou não estão disponíveis em todas as microrregiões analisadas.…”