Population-level relative effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines and the contribution of naturally acquired immunity

Shioda, Kayoko; Chen, Yangping; Collins, Matthew H.; Lopman, Benjamin A.

doi:10.1101/2022.10.04.22280689

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…While existing research has predominantly focused on individual factors such as vaccination rates 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 or socioeconomic parameters 7,8,9 , associated with reduced pandemic excess mortality or COVID-19 fatalities, this study takes an approach by simultaneously considering both vaccination rates and a state's economic well-being, measured by its annual GDP per capita. Crucially, a state's GDP per capita serves as an indicator of its economic capacity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Vaccination Rates, Pre-Pandemic Life Expectancy, Economic Status and Age on COVID-19 Excess Mortality Across United States

Matveeva,

Ogurtsov,

Shabalina

2024

Preprint

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Objective: To investigate the relationship between vaccination rates and excess mortality during distinct waves of SARS-CoV-2 variant-specific infections, while considering a state's GDP per capita. Methods: We ranked U.S. states by vaccination rates and GDP and employed the CDC's excess mortality model for regression and odds ratio analysis. Results: Regression analysis reveals that both vaccination and GDP are significant factors related to mortality when considering the entire U.S. population. Notably, in wealthier states (with GDP above $65,000), excess mortality is primarily driven by slow vaccination rates, while in less affluent states, low GDP plays a major role. Odds ratio analysis demonstrates an almost twofold increase in mortality linked to the Delta and Omicron BA.1 virus variants in states with the slowest vaccination rates compared to those with the fastest (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.7-1.9, p < 0.01). However, this gap disappeared in the post-Omicron BA.1 period. Conclusion: The interplay between slow vaccination and low GDP per capita drives high mortality.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Vaccination Rates, Pre-Pandemic Life Expectancy, Economic Status and Age on COVID-19 Excess Mortality Across United States

Matveeva,

Ogurtsov,

Shabalina

2024

Preprint

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“…Several studies have found a negative correlation between vaccination rates and excess mortality associated with COVID-19 ( 20 – 24 ). In theory, the mere fact that such a correlation exists cannot be proof of a causal relationship.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of vaccination and booster rates and their impact on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries

Matveeva¹,

Shabalina

2023

Front. Immunol.

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AimTo evaluate the effect of vaccination/booster administration dynamics on the reduction of excess mortality during COVID-19 infection waves in European countries.MethodsWe selected twenty-nine countries from the OurWorldInData project database according to their population size of more than one million and the availability of information on dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants during COVID-19 infection waves. After selection, we categorized countries according to their “faster” or “slower” vaccination rates. The first category included countries that reached 60% of vaccinated residents by October 2021 and 70% by January 2022. The second or “slower” category included all other countries. In the first or “faster” category, two groups, “boosters faster’’ and “boosters slower” were created. Pearson correlation analysis, linear regression, and chi-square test for categorical data were used to identify the association between vaccination rate and excess mortality. We chose time intervals corresponding to the dominance of viral variants: Wuhan, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1/2.Results and discussionThe “faster” countries, as opposed to the “slower” ones, did better in protecting their residents from mortality during all periods of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and even before vaccination. Perhaps higher GDP per capita contributed to their better performance throughout the pandemic. During mass vaccination, when the Delta variant prevailed, the contrast in mortality rates between the “faster” and “slower” categories was strongest. The average excess mortality in the “slower” countries was nearly 5 times higher than in the “faster” countries, and the odds ratio (OR) was 4.9 (95% CI 4.4 to 5.4). Slower booster rates were associated with significantly higher mortality during periods dominated by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, with an OR of 2.6 (CI 95%. 2.1 to 3.3). Among the European countries we analyzed, Denmark, Norway, and Ireland did best, with a pandemic mortality rate of 0.1% of the population or less. By comparison, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Russia had a much higher mortality rate of up to 1% of the population.ConclusionThus, slow vaccination and booster administration was a major factor contributing to an order of magnitude higher excess mortality in “slower” European countries compared to more rapidly immunized countries.

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Population-level relative effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines and the contribution of naturally acquired immunity

Cited by 2 publications

References 19 publications

Impact of Vaccination Rates, Pre-Pandemic Life Expectancy, Economic Status and Age on COVID-19 Excess Mortality Across United States

Impact of Vaccination Rates, Pre-Pandemic Life Expectancy, Economic Status and Age on COVID-19 Excess Mortality Across United States

Comparison of vaccination and booster rates and their impact on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in European countries

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