Population‐level ecological risk assessment of planar polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons in great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) around Tokyo Bay, Japan

Abstract

Assessment of population-level ecological risk posed by planar polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (p-PCAHs; including polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans, and dioxintike polychlorinated biphenyls) in sediment of Tokyo Bay (Japan) and rivers via fish ingestion to the great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) population was conducted by means of a probabilistic approach. Population decline risk was used as an indicator of population-level effects and compared with other indicators of effects. The increment of egg mortality risk posed by current p-PCAH levels was estimated to be 11.7%. This risk was interpreted in terms of both the increase of the risk of population decline in a 10-year period on a recently abundant cormorant population, and the reduction in population growth rate (r). Population decline risks of 20% and below were estimated to be 16% for the reference population and 32% for the exposed population, whereas the reduction in r was estimated to be 10%. The risk expressed in terms of population viability is a more susceptible measure and a more easily understandable indicator than both egg mortality risk as an individual-level risk and the reduction in r. Translating the effects due to pollutants into the risk on population viability will make ecological risk assessment more conductive to risk management.

Evaluation of population‐level ecological risks of dioxin‐like polychlorinated biphenyl exposure to fish‐eating birds in Tokyo Bay and its vicinity

“…The population transition and reproductive behavior of great cormorants in this area have been the subject of long‐term studies (see, e.g., Fukuda 1981, 1997). Murata, Masunaga, and Nakanishi (2003) as well as Murata, Iseki, et al (2003) have used data from those studies to estimate the demographics of the great cormorant, which we refer to in the present study.…”

Site‐Specific Applications of Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment: Review of the Literature Since 2000

“…National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Yokohama National University (Japan) Murata et al (2003) Performed an ecological assessment of inorganic chloramines in surface water A probabilistic water quality model was used to model discharges of chloramines to different freshwater systems in Canada and the resulting exposure distributions were compared to lethality endpoints to invertebrates and salmon. …”

“…Van Sprang et al (2004) conducted a probabilistic ecological risk assessment of zinc in surface water in the Netherlands. In other regions, probabilistic ecological risk assessment was applied to inorganic chlorines in Canadian surface water (Pasternak et al, 2003) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Japan (Murata et al, 2003).…”

Risks and Management of Dioxins and Dioxin-like Compounds in Baltic Sea Fish: An Integrated Assessment

“…Hendriks 1995). In particular, population and community level effects need to be distinguished from individual-level effects, using also population models (e.g., Murata et al 2002, Naito et al 2004). specifically pointed out that extrapolation of laboratory tests on eggs may underestimate risks, as exposures in the nature start already at fertilization, may also affect parenting, and are increased by the remaining yolk and forage.…”