Population growth in U.S. counties, 1840–1990

Abstract

We examine the location and growth of the U.S. population using county-level census data from 1840 and 1990. Counties are described by natural and produced characteristics they possessed in 1840. Natural characteristics include climate, mineral resources and access to natural transportation networks. Produced characteristics include industry mix, educational infrastructure, literacy rates, and access to man-made transportation systems. We investigate how natural characteristics influenced settlement patterns in 1840, and how natural and produced characteristics influenced population growth over the subsequent 150 years. We find that natural characteristics heavily influenced where populations located in 1840. We also that educational infrastructure, literacy rates, industry mix, and access to transportation networks had a significant influence on growth. There is little evidence of population convergence among our full sample of counties; such evidence appears only when the most-heavily-populated counties in 1840 are excluded from the sample. Moreover, when counties located on the western frontier are excluded from the full sample, on the assumption that they were relatively far from their steady state populations, there is evidence of population divergence.We thank Van Beck Hall for help identifying data sources; Carol Kraker and Steve Lehrer for research assistance; and

Historical Perspectives on U.S. Economic Geography

“…Simon and Nardinelli (2002) find that cities with higher levels of human capital in 1880 grew faster over the next one hundred years, suggesting the importance of knowledge spillovers. Beeson, DeJong, and Troesken (2001) find that initial advantages have persistent results for a much longer period in U.S. history. However, Rappaport and Sachs (2001) argues that geography, especially access to coasts of both oceans and Great Lakes play an important role in explaining population distribution and density.…”

Determinants of Income Growth in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Labor Markets

“…As noted by Beeson, DeJong, and Troesken (2001) the focus on cities and metropolitan areas may lead to the sort of selection bias noted by DeLong (1988) in his analysis of Baumol's (1986) convergence results for OECD countries. A more general investigation of convergence and growth should consider all labor markets, not just a subset, even if that subset accounts for a large share of the population.…”

“…Hammond and Thompson (2006), Hammond (2006), Hammond (2004), Henry, Barkley, andLi (2004), Huang, Orazem, andWohlgemuth (2002), Rupasingha, Goetz, and Freshwater (2002), Beeson, DeJong, and Troesken (2001), Nissan and Carter (1999), and Carlino and Mills (1987) explore the issue of growth in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, using a variety of empirical approaches including distribution dynamics, time-series methods, spatial distribution dynamics, cross-section regressions, and trends in cross-section standard deviations.…”

“…The presence of more four-year colleges and universities per person (Univpc) is expected to encourage growth in education attainment, along the lines of Beeson, DeJong, and Troesken (2001) and Glaeser and Saiz (2004). We include several amenity variables, which have been shown to matter in this context, for example by Deller et al (2001) and Kim, Marcouiller, and Deller (2005).…”

“…Further, studies that focus exclusively on metropolitan areas or cities may suffer from sample selection bias. To remedy this, Hammond and Thompson (2006), Hammond (2006), Hammond (2004), Henry, Barkley, and Li (2004), Huang, Orazem, and Wohlgemuth (2002), Rupasingha, Goetz, and Freshwater (2002), Beeson, DeJong, and Troesken (2001), Nissan and Carter (1999), and Carlino and Mills (1987) investigated convergence and growth issues us-1 In 1969, the commuting zone region with the highest per capita personal income was Nantucket County, Massachusetts ($5,111). The commuting zone region with the lowest income was Maverick County, Texas ($1,349).…”