Population growth and taxes: the effect of regional differences in the Spanish inheritance tax

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of inheritance tax on population growth exploiting the quasi-random differences in the inheritance tax across different Spanish regions over the last 20 years. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences approach to municipality population data, we found a robust-positive short-term effect (1–4 years) on the population growth for small inheritances. The impact is sizable and represents roughly 6% of the standard deviation, but this dissipates after 7 years. The heterogeneity analysis by age group reveals a clear positive and lasting response to the inheritance tax benefits for those aged 50–69 years. This is especially seen in municipalities close to the border pointing to migration costs as a key factor in changes of residence in response to the inheritance tax law differences.