Population exposure to concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves in Huai River Basin, China

Zhang, Yuqing; Mao, Guangxiong; Chen, Changchun; Lu, ZhongHui; Zhang, Luo; Zhou, Wenting

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2020.102309

Cited by 32 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…CDHWs can amplify the damage of the individual droughts and heatwaves, ultimately wreaking a catastrophic effect on the environment, society, economy, and human health [44,54]. The summer CDHWs in Europe in 2003 and China in 2013 caused a high increase in mortality, especially in the elderly and infant populations as well as in persons with pre-existing cardiovascular and respiratory conditions [9,11,34,36,55]. In this study, we used the GRB, a subtropical region in southern China (heatwaves and droughts are prone to occur in summer in this region), as an example to investigate characteristics of population exposure to CDHWs based on observation and ERA5 data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A hot event is generally defined as a T max in more than the 90th or 95th percentile during the specific period [21,22,36]. Considering the climate characteristics of the GRB, a hot event (hot day) here was defined by the daily T max > 90th percentile of the local daily climatology from 1961 to 2018.…”

Section: Heatwave Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The population exposure index is measured by the number of citizens exposed to the relevant indicators (i.e., CDHW frequency and CDHMI) of the compound event, that is, the annual indices of compound events multiplied by the corresponding annual number of people exposed to that outcome [36,42]. Therefore, the measurement units of population exposure to CDHW frequency and CDHMI are person-events and person-CDHMI, respectively.…”

Section: Contribution Population Exposure To Cdhwsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Heatwaves can cause heat stroke and can affect the elderly, infants, and persons with pre-existing cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, and may further increase morbidity and mortality rates [34][35][36][37]. If heatwaves occur during the drought period, then their destructive power is greater than that of individual heatwaves on natural environments, society, economy, and human health.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The damage was particularly severe in both eastern and southern China, which are densely populated areas [11,39]. Scenario population data (e.g., shared socioeconomic pathways) have been examined to explore the characteristics of population exposure to climate extremes [40], such as extreme precipitation [41], heatwaves [36,42], and droughts [43,44]. Yet, research on the exposure of the population to hydroclimatic extremes using long-term population observation data is still relatively rare, especially for CDHWs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China

Zhang

Mao

Chen

et al. 2021

Land

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The frequency, duration, and magnitude of heatwaves and droughts are expected to increase in a warming climate, which can have profound impacts on the environment, society, and public health, and these may be severely affected specifically by compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs). On the basis of daily maximum temperature data and the one-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1961 to 2018, the Gan River Basin (GRB) was taken as a case here to construct CDHW identification indicators and quantify the population exposure to CDHWs. We found that ERA5 reanalysis data performed well in overall simulating temperature, precipitation, one-month SPEI, heatwaves, and CDHWs in the GRB from 1961 to 2018. CDHWs during the period from 1997 to 2018 were slightly higher than that in 1961–1997. CDHWs were more likely to occur in the southern parts of the basin due to the relatively high values of drought–heatwave dependence indices. Atmospheric circulation analysis of the 2003 CDHW in the GRB showed a relatively long-lasting anomalous high pressure and anticyclonic circulation system, accompanied by the positive convective inhibition and surface net solar radiation anomalies. These circulating background fields eventually led to the exceptional 2003 CDHW occurrence in the GRB. The population exposure to CDHWs basically increased, especially for the moderate CDHWs in ERA5. The change in total exposure was mainly due to climate change. Compared with the period from 1989 to 1998, the contributions of the population change effect in 2009–2018 gradually increased with the increase in the CDHW magnitude both in the observations and ERA5 reanalysis data.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Heatwave Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Contribution Population Exposure To Cdhwsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China

Zhang

Mao

Chen

et al. 2021

Land

Self Cite

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Concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves in the late 21st century over the CORDEX‐East Asia phase 2 domain using multi‐GCM and multi‐RCM chains

Kim

Ahn

Suh

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The adverse impacts of extreme heat on human health when a concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwave (CDNHW) occurs are greater than when daytime or nighttime heatwaves occur individually, because of the reduced recovery time from heat exposure. This study projects increases in CDNHW over the whole of East Asia under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are used to define a CDNHW, are calculated of 3‐hourly temperatures of 25 km horizontal resolution produced by 12 general circulation model and regional climate model chains participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia phase 2 project. In Historical simulation (1981–2005), occurrence period and occurrence rate of CDNHW from April to September area‐averaged in East Asia are 10.9 days and 0.9%, respectively. In projections for the future (2071–2100), occurrence period and occurrence rate of CDNHW will be 3 weeks and 3.7% (RCP2.6), 2 months and 20.5% (RCP8.5), 2 months and 15.6% (SSP1‐2.6), and 3 months and 45.7% (SSP5‐8.5). In addition, it is expected that the CDNHW intensity will increase, and the spatial extent of CDNHW will be extended. Although a CDNHW lasting less than 3 days is the most common, the proportion of CDNHWs lasting more than 10 days, compared to the total CDNHW frequency, will increase to 1.2% (RCP2.6), 7.2% (RCP8.5), 6.1% (SSP1‐2.6), and 17.3% (SSP5‐8.5) from 0.2% (Historical). Both occurrence rate and intensity of CDNHW will increase to a relatively large extent in Indochina, East and West China, and India. If the current greenhouse gas emissions continue, East Asia will experience unprecedented heat stress because the frequency and intensity of CDNHWs, which rarely occur during present‐day, will increase significantly over all regions by the end of the 21st century.

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User’s Factors: Vulnerability and Exposure

Salvalai,

Quagliarini,

Blanco Cadena

et al. 2024

SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology

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Population exposure to concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves in Huai River Basin, China

Cited by 32 publications

References 47 publications

Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China

Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China

Concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves in the late 21st century over the CORDEX‐East Asia phase 2 domain using multi‐GCM and multi‐RCM chains

User’s Factors: Vulnerability and Exposure

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