The timing of reproduction is a key determinant of tness. Here, we develop parameterized integral projection models of size-related owering for the monocarpic perennial Oenothera glazioviana and use these to predict the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for owering. For the most part there is excellent agreement between the model predictions and the results of quantitative eld studies. However, the model predicts a much steeper relationship between plant size and the probability of owering than observed in the eld, indicating selection for a 'threshold size' owering function. Elasticity and sensitivity analysis of population growth rate l and net reproductive rate R 0 are used to identify the critical traits that determine tness and control the ESS for owering. Using the tted model we calculate the tness landscape for invading genotypes and show that this is characterized by a ridge of approximately equal tness. The implications of these results for the maintenance of genetic variation are discussed.