Abstract:Migratory animals are comprised of a complex series of interconnected breeding and nonbreeding populations. Because individuals in any given population can arrive from a variety of sites the previous season, predicting how different populations will respond to environmental change can be challenging. In this study, we develop a population model composed of a network of breeding and wintering sites to show how habitat loss affects patterns of connectivity and species abundance. When the costs of migration are e… Show more
“…At a minimum 50% occurrence probability, we estimate that monarchs occupied a breeding area more than 4.5 million km 2 . The best predictors of monarch occurrence were geographical attributes, climatic variables and to a lesser extent vegetation characteristics [19,23 -25].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 96%
“…Migratory species typically form complex networks consisting of multiple breeding and non-breeding populations that are demographically linked through individual migratory movements [1,2]. Thus, the conservation and management of migratory species at continental scales requires information on how different phases of the annual cycle are geographically connected [3].…”
Insect migration may involve movements over multiple breeding generations at continental scales, resulting in formidable challenges to their conservation and management. Using distribution models generated from citizen scientist occurrence data and stable-carbon and -hydrogen isotope measurements, we tracked multi-generational colonization of the breeding grounds of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America. We found that monarch breeding occurrence was best modelled with geographical and climatic variables resulting in an annual breeding distribution of greater than 12 million km 2 that encompassed 99% occurrence probability. Combining occurrence models with stable isotope measurements to estimate natal origin, we show that butterflies which overwintered in Mexico came from a wide breeding distribution, including southern portions of the range. There was a clear northward progression of monarchs over successive generations from May until August when reproductive butterflies began to change direction and moved south. Fifth-generation individuals breeding in Texas in the late summer/autumn tended to originate from northern breeding areas rather than regions further south. Although the Midwest was the most productive area during the breeding season, monarchs that re-colonized the Midwest were produced largely in Texas, suggesting that conserving breeding habitat in the Midwest alone is insufficient to ensure long-term persistence of the monarch butterfly population in eastern North America.
“…At a minimum 50% occurrence probability, we estimate that monarchs occupied a breeding area more than 4.5 million km 2 . The best predictors of monarch occurrence were geographical attributes, climatic variables and to a lesser extent vegetation characteristics [19,23 -25].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 96%
“…Migratory species typically form complex networks consisting of multiple breeding and non-breeding populations that are demographically linked through individual migratory movements [1,2]. Thus, the conservation and management of migratory species at continental scales requires information on how different phases of the annual cycle are geographically connected [3].…”
Insect migration may involve movements over multiple breeding generations at continental scales, resulting in formidable challenges to their conservation and management. Using distribution models generated from citizen scientist occurrence data and stable-carbon and -hydrogen isotope measurements, we tracked multi-generational colonization of the breeding grounds of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America. We found that monarch breeding occurrence was best modelled with geographical and climatic variables resulting in an annual breeding distribution of greater than 12 million km 2 that encompassed 99% occurrence probability. Combining occurrence models with stable isotope measurements to estimate natal origin, we show that butterflies which overwintered in Mexico came from a wide breeding distribution, including southern portions of the range. There was a clear northward progression of monarchs over successive generations from May until August when reproductive butterflies began to change direction and moved south. Fifth-generation individuals breeding in Texas in the late summer/autumn tended to originate from northern breeding areas rather than regions further south. Although the Midwest was the most productive area during the breeding season, monarchs that re-colonized the Midwest were produced largely in Texas, suggesting that conserving breeding habitat in the Midwest alone is insufficient to ensure long-term persistence of the monarch butterfly population in eastern North America.
“…In line with other analyses of migratory populations (Taylor andNorris 2010, Rayfield et al 2011), we quantified the impact of each area's removal on the total summer population size. When removing a given summer roost or winter region from the model, the individuals contained in that location were allowed to migrate to other areas.…”
. 2017. Operationalizing the telecoupling framework for migratory species using the spatial subsidies approach to examine ecosystem services provided by Mexican free-tailed bats. Ecology and Society 22 (4) ABSTRACT. Drivers of environmental change in one location can have profound effects on ecosystem services and human well-being in distant locations, often across international borders. The telecoupling provides a conceptual framework for describing these interactions-for example, locations can be defined as sending areas (sources of flows of ecosystem services, energy, or information) or receiving areas (recipients of flows). However, the ability to quantify feedbacks between ecosystem change in one area and societal benefits in other areas requires analytical approaches. We use spatial subsidies-an approach developed to measure the degree to which a migratory species' ability to provide services in one location depends on habitat in another location-as an example of how telecoupling can be operationalized. Using the cotton pest control and ecotourism services of Mexican free-tailed bats as an example, we determined that of the 16 states in the United States and Mexico where the species resides, three states (Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado) are receiving areas, while the rest of the states are sending areas. In addition, the magnitude of spatial subsidy can be used as an indicator of the degree to which different locations are telecoupled to other locations. In this example, the Mexican free-tailed bat ecosystem services to cotton production and ecotourism in Texas and New Mexico are heavily dependent on winter habitat in four states in central and southern Mexico. In sum, spatial subsidies can be used to operationalize the telecoupling conceptual framework by identifying sending and receiving areas, and by indicating the degree to which locations are telecoupled to other locations.
“…Two different approaches have been applied to the network framework; a model with connectivity described as time-varying transition functions between patches [11], and an N-population model where connectivity is derived by finding a dynamic population equilibrium [12]. Neither approach, however, allows for colonization or extinction of patches.…”
Metapopulation models are widely used to study species that occupy patchily distributed habitat, but are rarely applied to migratory species, because of the difficulty of identifying demographically independent subpopulations. Here, we extend metapopulation theory to describe the directed seasonal movement of migratory populations between two sets of habitat patches, breeding and non-breeding, with potentially different colonization and extinction rates between patch types. By extending the classic metapopulation model, we show that migratory metapopulations will persist if the product of the two colonization rates exceeds the product of extinction rates. Further, we develop a spatially realistic migratory metapopulation model and derive a landscape metric-the migratory metapopulation capacitythat determines persistence. This new extension to metapopulation theory introduces an important tool for the management and conservation of migratory species and may also be applicable to model the dynamics of two host-parasite systems.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.