Population Density and Growth

Coale, Ansley J.; Foerster, Heinz von; Mora, Patricia Montero; Amiot, Lawrence W.

doi:10.1126/science.133.3468.1931

Cited by 16 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…There were criticisms of the growth pre dicted by the equation as soon as the article was published. The authors discussed and generally dismissed them in three further short communications [von Foerster et al, 1961a[von Foerster et al, , 19616, 1962see also Robertson et al, 1961;Hutton, 1961;Howland, 1961;Shinbrot, 1961;Coale, 1961;and Dorn, 1962].…”

Section: This Report Was Contributed By U S Inan and M J Rycroftmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space science strategy

Fraser–Smith

1989

EoS Transactions

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The headline to a recent news article read “NASA Focuses on Station, Faces Growing Budget Crisis” [Covault, 1989], which I thought summarized NASA's present and probable future succinctly. The article was unusual: it not only discussed NASA's budget options through 2000, a long time by the normal standards of these discussions, but it also pointed out that “major design decisions over the next two years will be critical to constructing a [space] station that will endure 30 years.” Imagine trying to think 30–40 years ahead in the space program to a time in the middle 2020s when the station will presumably cease to endure! As I will try to show, however, it is crucial for those of us in the space program to think ahead for those 30–40 years if we are going to interpret correctly the events already beginning to shape the program for those years and which must soon begin to have a dramatic effect on its viability.

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Section: This Report Was Contributed By U S Inan and M J Rycroftmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space science strategy

Fraser–Smith

1989

EoS Transactions

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“…This led them to predict that the population would exceed all bounds at some finite time in the future (10). This was in exact opposition to the dynamics so long assumed by Pearl (8) and others and was met with criticism and disbelief (11). Twenty-five years after that, Cohen (9) exhibited a model that retained a carrying capacity, but that let the carrying capacity systematically increase faster than the population increased.…”

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confidence: 98%

Ecology of the Anthropocene signals hope for consciously managing the planetary ecosystem

Lehman

Loberg

Wilson

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Human populations have grown to such an extent that our species has become a dominant force on the planet, prompting geologists to begin applying the term Anthropocene to recognize the present moment. Many approaches seek to explain the past and future of human population growth, in the form of narratives and models. Some of the most influential models have parameters that cannot be precisely known but are estimated by expert opinion. Here we apply a unified model of ecology to provide a macroscale summary of the net effects of many microscale processes, using a minimal set of parameters that can be known. Our models match estimates of historic and prehistoric global human population numbers and provide predictions that correspond to some of the more complicated current models. In addition to fitting the data well they reveal that, amidst enormous complexity in our human and prehuman past, three key ecological discontinuities have occurred in turn: 1) becoming dominant competitors of large predators rather than their prey, 2) becoming mutualists with food species rather than acting as predators upon them, and 3) changing from a regime of uncontrolled population growth to one of controlled fertility instead. All three processes have been interlinked with cultural evolution and all three ushered in developments of the Anthropocene. Understanding the trajectories that have delivered us to this stage can help guide prudent paths into the future.

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The scientific revolution in demography

Umpleby

1990

Popul Environ

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Population Density and Growth

Cited by 16 publications

References 1 publication

Space science strategy

Space science strategy

Ecology of the Anthropocene signals hope for consciously managing the planetary ecosystem

The scientific revolution in demography

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