Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

Frame, David J.; Joshi, Manoj; Hawkins, Ed; Harrington, Luke J.; Róiste, Mairéad de

doi:10.1038/nclimate3297

Cited by 77 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Many of the largest global shifts in climate, relative to the background variability, are found in countries with large, vulnerable populations, and this will be exacerbated if policy targets such as those in the Paris Agreement are not met (Frame et al, 2017; King & Harrington, 2018). There are also implications for ecosystems in these regions, which may not be able to adapt to such an unknown climate, especially given the rates of change.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We adopt the language of Frame et al (2017) to describe how the climate has changed from being familiar, to being “unusual” relative to lived experience (S/N > 2), “unknown” (S/N > 3), and here we introduce “inconceivable” for S/N values above 5 (supporting information Figure S1). Using this terminology, temperatures in Oxford have become unknown relative to the early‐industrial era.…”

Section: Observed Emergence and Signal‐to‐noisementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The clearest emergence of warming—and largest signal‐to‐noise values—tend to be found in the tropics, which are regions with large and vulnerable populations (Frame et al, 2017; Harrington et al, 2017; Lehner & Stocker, 2015). Signal‐to‐noise (S/N) is important for climate impacts, especially for ecosystems which have a limited ability to adapt, and so large changes outside past experience could be particularly harmful (Beaumont et al, 2011; Deutsch et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown

Hawkins

Frame

Harrington

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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109

104

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Changes in climate are usually considered in terms of trends or differences over time. However, for many impacts requiring adaptation, it is the amplitude of the change relative to the local amplitude of climate variability which is more relevant. Here, we develop the concept of “signal‐to‐noise” in observations of local temperature, highlighting that many regions are already experiencing a climate which would be “unknown” by late 19th century standards. The emergence of observed temperature changes over both land and ocean is clearest in tropical regions, in contrast to the regions of largest change which are in the northern extratropics—broadly consistent with climate model simulations. Significant increases and decreases in rainfall have also already emerged in different regions with the United Kingdom experiencing a shift toward more extreme rainfall events, a signal which is emerging more clearly in some places than the changes in mean rainfall.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Observed Emergence and Signal‐to‐noisementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown

Hawkins

Frame

Harrington

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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109

104

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“…Impacts of heat events that are avoided (Avoided Impacts, AI) at 1.5 °C warmer climates compared with impacts at 2 °C warmer climates were explored using the computation below:

AI = \frac{((), ∆ 2^{°} normalC - ∆ {1.5}^{°} normalC)}{∆ 2^{°} normalC} \times 100 %

where AI is the avoided impacts and ∆ 1.5 ° C and ∆ 2 ° C are the respective changes in the 1.5 and 2 °C global warming levels with respect to current levels (Frame et al, ; Li, Zhou, et al, ; Zhang et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐Temperature Extreme Events Over Africa Under 1.5 and 2 °C of Global Warming

et al. 2019

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With anthropogenic global warming, heat‐related extreme events are projected to increase in severity and frequency. Already vulnerable regions like Africa will be hard‐hit. Therefore, such regions could benefit from low global warming levels. Using the Community Earth System Model low warming simulations, we investigate changes in temperature extremes across Africa as a function of global mean temperature in the context of the implications of the Paris Agreement's targets. A significant warming across Africa is projected at the 1.5 °C warming world and is amplified at the 2 °C world, exceeding the mean global warming rate. Specifically, North Africa and East Africa regions are projected to have the highest and lowest temperature changes of 0.63 °C (0.60–0.67 °C) and 0.50 °C (0.47–0.54 °C), respectively, between the 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. Consequently, hot events are also estimated to increase with global warming. We showed that limiting warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C may lead to 29% (27–31%) to 35% (33–37%) reduction in severity of hot events and to 31% (30–33%) to 42% (39–48%) reduction in the frequency of the threshold‐based high‐temperature events across Africa. The highest reductions are projected over North Africa. Furthermore, restricting warming to 0.5 °C lower than 2 °C might also result in 28% (34–40%) to 37% (25–34%) reduction in severity of once‐in‐10/20‐year heat events across Africa with North Africa having the highest benefits than tropical regions. Thus, restricting warming to low levels may indeed translate to substantial benefits of reduced intensity and frequency of extreme heat events across Africa.

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“…While the intention is primarily to illustrate practical examples of the TE concept, the decision to examine S/N ratios for the chosen extreme climate indices is motivated by the multitude of studies which have placed an increasing emphasis on interpreting the signal of regional climate change in the context of existing variability over a given location (Diffenbaugh & Scherer, 2011;Fischer & Knutti, 2015;Frame et al, 2017;Harrington et al, 2016;Hawkins & Sutton, 2012;King et al, 2016;Lehner & Stocker, 2015;Mahlstein et al, 2011). It is further noted that this study only calculates S/N ratios at a given warming threshold from a high-carbon scenario of future climate change (RCP8.5): Such a scenario, which crosses a wide range of temperatures, is a necessary requirement for the framing of results presented in both sections 2.1 and 3.…”

Section: Methodological Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

Harrington

Frame

King

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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In the last decade, climate mitigation policy has galvanized around staying below specified thresholds of global mean temperature, with an understanding that exceeding these thresholds may result in dangerous interference of the climate system. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change texts have developed thresholds in which the aim is to limit warming to well below 2 °C of warming above preindustrial levels, with an additional aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, denoting a specific threshold of global mean temperatures as a target for avoiding damaging climate impacts implicitly obscures potentially significant regional variations in the magnitude of these projected impacts. This study introduces a simple framework to quantify the magnitude of this heterogeneity in changing climate hazards at 1.5 °C of warming, using case studies of emergent increases in temperature and rainfall extremes. For example, we find that up to double the amount of global warming (3.0 °C) is needed before people in high‐income countries experience the same relative changes in extreme heat that low‐income nations should anticipate after only 1.5 °C of warming. By mapping how much warming is needed in one location to match the impacts of a fixed temperature threshold in another location, this “temperature of equivalence” index is a flexible and easy‐to‐understand communication tool, with the potential to inform where targeted support for adaptation projects should be prioritized in a warming world.

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Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

Cited by 77 publications

References 12 publications

Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown

Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown

High‐Temperature Extreme Events Over Africa Under 1.5 and 2 °C of Global Warming

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

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