Pollen allergy in the Bilbao area (European Atlantic seaboard climate): pollination forecasting methods

Abstract

Forecasting pollination can help the allergist to establish the appropriate treatment and advice for patients. Based on previous studies, we have related the climate variables with the grass pollen counts in the search for pollination predictors. By relating the meteorological data of the temperature recorded every 6 h and of the rainfall in hourly periods, together with the daily pollen counts obtained by the Hirst volumetric system, over a period of 3 years, we have tried to predict the start, duration and severity of the grass pollination, as well as the days of peak pollination. We have established a relationship by means of a polynomic regression originating from the mean cumulated temperature higher than 9 degrees C [R2 = 0.927 (P = 0.0001)], with the pollination season starting from 300 degrees C and the maximum peak at 356 degrees C, in the 3 years of the study. During the days of pollination, peaks higher than 50 grains/m3 coincide with average daily temperatures of 18.7 +/- 3 and lower than 50 grains/m3 with temperatures of 16.8 +/- 3 (significant to 95%). The duration of the pollination is influenced by the cumulated average temperatures (from 800 to 900 degrees C) and especially by precipitation at the start of and during pollination. In order to forecast grass pollination, the cumulated average temperatures are useful, starting from a basal (9 degrees C), pollination begins when this sum is greater than 300 degrees C, whereas when 800 degrees C is reached and depending on the rainfall during the season, pollination will end.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Climate change: consequences on the pollination of grasses in Perugia (Central Italy). A 33-year-long study

“…Indeed, rainfall can alter the shape of a year's pollen curve and can influence peak characteristics, as reported in other works (Norris-Hill and Emberlin 1993, Sánchez-Mesa et al 2005, Kasprzyk and Walanus 2010. Currently, in the area of this study, it does not interfere with the beginning or end dates nor with the length of the season, in contrast with what Antépara et al (1995) observed. The lack of a clear trend in this sense is justified by a different sensitivity of the grass species to rainfall and, in general, water availability (Reddi et al 1988).…”

An examination of the main characteristics of the pollen seasons in Budapest, Hungary (1991–1996)

“…In Madrid, where the climate is dry-continental, Subiza et al (1992) found that the season start was promoted by the pre-seasonal precipitation, but not by the temperature. In Bilbao (Atlantic climate) Antepara et al (1995) observed quite the reverse, ie. precipitation had no effect on the start of grass pollination, but higher pre-seasonal temperature promoted it.…”

Two statistical approaches to forecasting the start and duration of the pollen season of Ambrosia in the area of Lyon (France)

“…Many authors have forecast the SDP of various plants, using meteorological parameters; regardless of the procedure, temperature was the most frequently used parameter (Lejoly-Gabriel 1978;Niqueux and Arnaud 1981;Törnevik 1982;Richardson and Anderson 1986;Linvill 1990;Andersen 1991;Frenguelli et al 1991;Sutra et al 1992;Larsson 1993;AntØpara et al 1995;Recio et al 1997;Gonzales Minero et al 1999;Garcia-Mozo et al 2000;Orlandi et al 2002). On rare occasions, radiation or evapotranspiration (Durand 1967), or sometimes several meteorological factors like temperature, wind and rainfall (Mandrioli et al 1993;Fornaciari et al 1998;Laaidi 2001a, b) were used.…”