Political stability, transition and conflict: Tajikistan compared with Georgia

Abstract

The republics of Tajikistan and Georgia in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, respectively, are both small Soviet successor states. Their postindependence history was one of the political volatilities and instabilities until the mid-2000s. Nevertheless, these independent countries have eventually developed diverging policies, notably with regard to their political alliances and world orientations. Although contingent and actor-driven factors may have influenced the outcome, the influence of structural factors has been far greater than those agency-driven factors. 1 In many ways, the Tajikistani Civil War resembles that of the Chechen Conflict (1991-2009, ongoing low-intensity conflict) and also helps us understand the Syrian Conflict (2011-present). Similar to Georgia, Tajikistan experienced the collapse of state institutions more intensely than other Soviet republics. It is worth mentioning that during the last days of the former Soviet Union Tajikistan had the highest rate of demonstrations per capita amongst all Central Asian republics. 2 In all these three cases, internal conflicts triggered (to varying degrees) regional conflicts as foreign states and (Islamist) militias interfered in them. The Tajikistani Civil War was the bloodiest conflict in the post-Soviet space after the Chechen War. Despite the fact that Georgia has not been an arena of continuous armed conflict, the sometimes 'frozen' sometimes 'melted' conflicts have had a profound impact on the political, economic and social affairs in that country. As a young man, a veteran of 2008 Georgian-Russian War told me: 'Georgia has had a history of wars. Do you believe me? I am in my early 30s, yet I have experienced three wars in my lifetime.' This review article is primarily based on the books listed below. The scope of this review article is neither writing separate critical book reviews, nor comparing those volumes with each other. Therefore, this list does not necessarily include only recent books, as these books are enlisted primarily for their relevance to this article's discussion. After having read a number of recent and less recent works on this issuebroadly speaking-I try to discuss a number of relevant issues about political stability, transition and conflict. The information and insight acquired from these works help debate and understand the political transitions and conflict in these two countries. Hopefully they also offer solid insight and knowledge to understand and explain political transitions and conflict in general, or at least in similar cases. Even though in this current article some of the mentioned works weigh heavier than others, all these selected books form the corpus and backbone of this essay and are added with other relevant material.

Revisiting the Role of Institutions in Transformative Contexts: Institutional Change and Conflicts

“…Similarly, many Soviet-era norms survived the transition from state socialism to a market economy [61]. An example of the Soviet legacy in Tatjikistan and Georgia for instance is the practice of using kompromat (compromising material) as means of control to enable the breaking of laws [62]. In this frame, institutional structures introduced in the post-Communist world are often inconsequential, while traditional behavioural patterns coexist with (and even contradict) new institutions [61,63].…”

Iran’s Foreign Policy toward Tajikistan: Exploring the Effective Factors

“…Tajikistan, on the other hand, is a landlocked country, and its geographical location and transportation restrictions have made it dependent on Uzbekistan and Russia in many ways, which are being used as a pressure tool against the country (Amirahmadian & Rezazadeh, 2012). In addition, Tajikistan is a member of Eurasian structures such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (Rezvani, 2019). The geographic location can be a positive and constructive factor in the bilateral relations between Iran and Tajikistan, and Tajikistan can benefit from Iran's geographical location to access open seas and the world markets and to balance the pressure of Russia and Uzbekistan.…”

Russian foreign policy and geopolitics in the Post-Soviet space and the Middle East: Tajikistan, Georgia, Ukraine and Syria

“…As in Syria, Russia fought a war against conservative Sunni and often violent Islamist militias, often called Wahhabis, in Chechnya and Tajikistan. 58 Russia was a winner in both conflicts, prevented a Chechen secession from Russia, installed a pro-Russian local government there and secured the Tajikistani government that was manned mainly by the former communist elites with a pro-Moscow orientation. Hence, Russia may regard victory in Syria, and even keeping Bashar Assad in power, as very possible and is intent on winning yet another new victory, this time, however, outside the Post-Soviet Space.…”