Political Settlement and China’s Overseas Operation: The Case of Ethiopia

Abstract

Political settlement analysis (PSA) has become a common approach scholars use to study socioeconomic differences among African countries. However, less attention has been given to how political settlement influences how African countries interact with their foreign counterparts. In this article, we illustrate the impact of political settlement on foreign policy by analyzing Ethiopia’s interactions with China. As one of China’s closest economic partners in Africa, Ethiopia, with its long-standing ethnic cleavages and political instability in the last few years, represents an ideal case for this topic. We find that the evolving political settlement in Ethiopia has greatly influenced the official engagements between the two countries. Over time, various Chinese actors have also developed a more nuanced understanding of the political dynamics of Ethiopia and the associated risks of investing in the country. Our study contributes to an emerging literature that emphasizes the power of local agencies in influencing China–Africa relations.