Political generations in Northern Ireland

Abstract

Since the late 1980s, Northern Ireland has seen a radical electoral shift away from the historically dominant parties in the Catholic and Protestant blocs – the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), respectively – towards the traditionally more ‘extreme’ parties – Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This change in aggregate support has been accompanied by increasing differences between generations as older cohorts of UUP and SDLP supporters have been replaced by newer cohorts of DUP and Sinn Fein partisans. This is not a result of increased polarisation in values and attitudes (whether overtly political or simply communal intolerance) among younger cohorts who are, if anything, slightly more moderate than their forbears. Rather, this results from the changing political context in which new generations have been socialised – in particular the expanded choice sets facing voters as they have reached voting age. This in turn has positive implications for the consolidation of devolved democratic governance.

The Evolution of Party Policy and Cleavage Voting under Power-Sharing in Northern Ireland

“…For example, some parties are perceived as more working class, perhaps because of their history, and that might directly attract working-class voters. Birth cohort also has a powerful direct effect on vote choice in Northern Ireland, with newer generations more likely to support the DUP and Sinn Féin McAllister 1999, 2013;Tilley and Evans 2011;Tonge et al 2011). Since generation is correlated with social liberalism in Northern Ireland (Evans and Tonge 2016), it is important to hold this constant.…”

The Two Types of Ulster Unionism: Testing an Ethnic Explanation for the Unionist/Loyalist Divide

“…Evans and Tonge (2009: 1,023) reported a strong, positive correlation between membership of non-Anglican denominations of Protestantism and support for the DUP between 1989 and 2006. This differs, however, from the more common class-based explanation of voter behaviour (Tilley et al, 2008;Tilley & Evans, 2011). Gallagher (1995: 732) noted that the division in Protestantism 'has long been present, but obscured under the Stormont regime by the appearance of near-universal Protestant satisfaction with the Ulster Unionist Party'.…”

Religion and democratization in Northern Ireland: is religion actually ethnicity in disguise?

“…57 Tilley and Evans find the same; DUP supporters are more likely to be Free Presbyterian or members of one of the other smaller Protestant churches, but they are also less likely to attend church regularly. 58 Sinn Féin supporters too are less likely to attend weekly mass than SDLP supporters. An even stronger predictor is age, where we see younger cohorts of voters shifting to the DUP and Sinn Féin.…”

“…Tilley and Evans have shown that new cohorts of voters are now more likely to be partisans of the DUP and Sinn Féin, but are in fact more moderate than their forbears in those parties. 35 In this section we will look at evidence relating to the importance of religion in party politics and democratization in Northern Ireland. One of the areas in which we should be able to observe the impact of religion, if it was important, is in electoral competition.…”