Political Epidemiology of Covid-19 Mortality: A Multilevel Analysis of Macro-Systemic Political Variables

Abstract

This study delves into the realm of "political epidemiology" which has gained increasing attention among scholars of political science and public health. It investigates how Covid mortality rate are influenced by macro-systemic political variables such as the level of democracy, systems of internal governance, government effectiveness, and trust in government. Employing multilevel modeling, I analyze countries' trajectories of Covid-19 mortality rates spanning from March 2020 to January 2022. I found that, on average, countries with a federal system tend to exhibit higher Covid-19 death rates compared to those with a unitary system. Moreover, democracy is found to be inversely associated with Covid-19 mortality across countries, although the specific effects of democracy on the trajectory of Covid-19 rates depend on the subgroup of countries considered. Furthermore, government effectiveness emerges as a crucial factor, with a negative association with Covid-19 mortality rates. Countries with more effective governance tend to experience lower death tolls from Covid-19. Additionally, in countries where the population demonstrates higher levels of trust in the government, the curves of Covid-19 death tolls tend to flatten.