Political Business Cycle in Taiwan—Evidence from Central Government Expenditures

Hung, Ling Chun; Hsieh, Yu Tou

doi:10.1080/01900692.2015.1004089

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Using the theoretical framework of political economy, the analysis showed that the after‐election market movement has progressively been more accurate in predicting future GDP growth but not future unemployment rates. In a related study, Hung and Hsieh (2015) used panel data from 1992 to 2010 to examine the effect of presidential elections on central government departmental expenditure in Taiwan. The results suggested an opportunistic PBC in Taiwan while government expenditure cycles have been significantly stronger in the years of the “new democracy.”…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?

Olakojo

2020

African Development Review

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The study examines Nigeria's business cycles between October 1998 and October 2017 and ascertains the importance of general elections cycles in engendering cyclical fluctuations in different measures of business cycles. A framework based on political business cycles theory was estimated with a dynamic Markov‐switching regression technique. The study finds that election cycles are adequate in predicting cycles in food prices, non‐farm prices, exports, and imports in Nigeria while a significant effect of election cycles on the stock market, general price level, and exchange rate could not be established. The study concludes that cycles in food, non‐farm prices, imports, and exports can be predicted by future general elections while re‐election seeking behaviour of politicians lacks the power to influence stock market performance and exchange rate in Nigeria. Hence, artificial business cycles that result primarily from politicians manipulating certain fiscal tools targeted at stimulating the economy only to increase the re‐election chances could be minimized if monetary and fiscal institutions are strong, effective, and truly independent. This will ensure that policies are not manipulated between elections by politicians but are well targeted at achieving a set of long‐term developmental goals.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?

Olakojo

2020

African Development Review

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“…Kategori kedua yaitu PBC yang lebih fokus pada instrumen kebijakan dibandingkan dengan outcome makro ekonomi. Kategori ketiga yaitu PBC yang fokus pada kebijakan moneter (juga dikenal sebagai political monetary cycle) (Hung & Hsieh, 2015…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Inflasi Dan Siklus Bisnis Politik Di Indonesia

Kartiasih¹

2019

Mediatrend

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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara siklus bisnis politik, inflasi, jumlah uang beredar (M1), kurs, PDB riil dan pertumbuhan PDB riil di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data kuartalan bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik dan Bank Indonesia dengan periode penelitian mulai tahun 2002:Q1 sampai dengan 2018:Q3. Hasil estimasi Ordinary Least Square (OLS) menunjukkan bahwa selama periode pemilu inflasi akan turun, tetapi tidak signifikan secara statistik. Sebaliknya, inflasi meningkat pasca pemilu. Selama kurun waktu 5 rezim pemerintahan, terlihat adanya siklus ekspansi pertumbuhan ekonomi pada akhir periode pemerintahan kecuali pada akhir pemerintahan SBY 2. Namun hasil estimasi untuk menguji hubungan PDB riil dan pertumbuhan PDB riil dengan sikus politik tidak signifikan. Sedangkan hasil estimasi untuk menguji hubungan jumlah uang beredar dan kurs dengan siklus politik signifikan secara statistik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa siklus bisnis politik terjadi di Indonesia dari sisi moneter.

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Öz Düzenlemeli̇ Hari̇talar İle Merkezi̇ Yöneti̇m Bütçe Harcamalarinin İncelenmesi̇

Dundar

OKTAY

2022

EKEV Akademi Dergisi

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Central government budget expenditures, which are very important for parliamentary systems, are respectively in Turkey; It goes through the stages of preparation, approval, implementation and control. Stability is essential for these public expenditures, which will take place in the following fiscal year. Otherwise, budget deficit occurs as a result of public expenditures being more than public revenues. Central government budget expenditures are divided into two as economic and functional classification. The parameters included in the economic and functional classification are presented as the sum of the expenses under them. The aim of this study is to examine the cluster analysis results of Central government budget expenditures per capita in Turkey with Self-Organizing Maps, which is an artificial neural network model and also a clustering analysis method.

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Political Business Cycle in Taiwan—Evidence from Central Government Expenditures

Cited by 3 publications

References 24 publications

A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?

A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?

Inflasi Dan Siklus Bisnis Politik Di Indonesia

Öz Düzenlemeli̇ Hari̇talar İle Merkezi̇ Yöneti̇m Bütçe Harcamalarinin İncelenmesi̇

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