Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues

Bretschneider, Stuart; Gorr, Wilpen L.; Grizzle, Gloria A.; Klay, Earle

doi:10.1016/0169-2070(89)90035-6

Cited by 112 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The type of research by Bretschneider et al (1989) is promising. They used survey data from state government agencies.…”

Section: Implications For Researchersmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…In their review of research on tourism forecasting, Witt and Witt (1995) concluded that the naive (no-change) model is typically more accurate than other procedures, such as commercially produced econometric models. The value of simplicity shows up in practice; in a survey on the accuracy of U.S. government revenue forecasts, states that used simple econometric methods reported substantially lower MAPEs than those that used complex econometric methods (Bretschneider et al 1989). …”

Section:  Use Quantitative Methods Rather Than Judgmental Methods Imentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bretschneider et al (1989) obtained information on 106 sales tax forecasts and 74 total revenue forecasts from state governments in the U.S. These were one-year ahead annual forecasts for 1975-85 from 28 states that responded to a survey.…”

Section:  Use Quantitative Methods Rather Than Judgmental Methods Imentioning

confidence: 99%

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Selecting Forecasting Methods

Armstrong

2009

SSRN Journal

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“…The type of research by Bretschneider et al (1989) is promising. They used survey data from state government agencies.…”

Section: Implications For Researchersmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section:  Use Quantitative Methods Rather Than Judgmental Methods Imentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Selecting Forecasting Methods

Armstrong

2009

SSRN Journal

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“…This objectivity in the weighting process is expected to improve accuracy, and equal weights is robust across situations (Clemen 1989). For example, Bretschneider et al (1989), in a field study, found that U.S. states that used mechanical combinations of forecasts had more accurate revenue forecasts than those using subjective combinations.…”

Section: Selecting and Combining Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making

Armstrong¹,

Trevarthen²

1999

Tools to Aid Environmental Decision Making

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“…9 See press release of the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs, June 3, 2010. Bretschneider et al [1989] show that forecast accuracy increases when independent forecasts from competing agencies are combined. 10 The Council of Economic Experts though focuses less on forecasting but rather on discussing basic allocative and distributive issues [Schmahl 2000].…”

Section: Joint Economic Forecastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ideology and Dissent among Economists: The Joint Economic Forecast of German Economic Research Institutes

et al. 2018

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Economists, and also economic research institutes, differ in their attitudes towards desirability of economic policies. The policy positions taken can often be determined by ideology. We examine economic policy positions by investigating minority votes in the Joint Economic Forecast of German economic research institutes. The dataset consists of voting behavior over the period 1950-2014. Our results show that the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) submitted by far the most minority votes, consistent with the popular impression that the DIW exhibits a preference for demand-oriented economic policy and has differed from the other leading economic research institutes in this respect. For example, the rate of minority voting of the DIW corresponded to some 300% of the rate of minority voting of the RWI Essen. Minority votes display an economic research institute's identity. When institutes are known to be associated with specific economic-policy positions, politicians, clients, and voters well understand how to assess the bias in the policy advice that is given. JEL-Code: D720, I230. Terms of use: Documents in

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Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues

Cited by 112 publications

References 16 publications

Selecting Forecasting Methods

Selecting Forecasting Methods

Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making

Ideology and Dissent among Economists: The Joint Economic Forecast of German Economic Research Institutes

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