Policy Punctuations in Danish Local Budgeting

Abstract

The central prediction in Baumgartner and Jones' (1993) punctuated equilibrium theory is that over time, public policy will be characterized by a certain pattern of stability now and then interrupted by punctuations. This paper extends the study of punctuated equilibrium theory in two ways. First, I examine whether this prediction is met in a non-US-based political system like Danish local government. Second, I conduct a comparative investigation of stability and punctuations in four public policy areas chosen for theoretical purposes. Using a stochastic process approach, my findings are that the annual local budget changes, as expected from the punctuated equilibrium theory, are characterized by a certain pattern of stability and punctuations. Equally interesting, however, is the fact that the analysis also reveals some systematic underlying variation, enhancing our understanding of just where budget punctuations are particularly likely to occur, something former studies on punctuated equilibrium theory have not elucidated. INTRODUCTIONIn 1993, Baumgartner and Jones introduced punctuated equilibrium theory as an agenda-based decision-making theory. With its integration of insights from the literature on incrementalism on the one hand and agenda-setting on the other, it provides an explanation of both stability and change in public policy. This is a rare contribution in the field of public policy analysis and probably the reason why their work has influenced a broad and diverse range of public policy studies.Although the punctuated equilibrium theory has already set a new agenda in many subfields of public policy research, it is still a young and relatively uncontested theory, introduced and developed mainly in an American political context. This study extends punctuated equilibrium theory in two ways. First, I apply punctuated equilibrium theory to Danish local budgeting in order to see whether we can reproduce a pattern of stability and change similar to the one found by Baumgartner and Jones in the US federal budget. Second, I argue that the empirical studies published thus far have focused too much on reproducing this pattern of punctuations and stability at the expense of looking for systematic variation within this overall pattern. The examination of such differences is important because it can lead us to a better understanding of where and why policy punctuations are particularly likely to occur, something we still do not know very much about.

The Tortoise or the Hare? Incrementalism, Punctuations, and Their Consequences

“…The theory of punctuated equilibrium is wide reaching in its potential implications as the cognitive limitations affecting individuals and institutions ought not to be country or government specific. Thus, scholars investigating other national budgets again found the same empirical reality in what became a series of independent case studies of national budgeting across Europe (Baumgartner, Foucault, & François, 2006; Mortensen, 2005, 2006; Walgrave, Varone, & Dumont, 2006). Similar results have been found at the subnational level, from specific functions in a state (Robinson, 2004) to local government budgeting (John, 2006; Jordan, 2003) to pooled state budgets (Breunig & Koski, 2006; Ryu, 2009).…”

Importing Concepts from Biology into Political Science: The Case of Punctuated Equilibrium

“…It has been even more influential in the study of the policymaking process. In 1993, Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones published Agendas and Instabilities in American Politics (Baumgartner and Jones, [1993] 2009), a reformulation of the study of policymaking that has reinvigorated the study of large‐scale policymaking patterns (Breunig & Koski, 2006, p. 364; Mortensen, 2005, p. 931). This book brought Eldredge and Gould's concept into political science in a spectacularly influential manner.…”

Theories of Policy Change and Variation Reconsidered: A Prospectus for the Political Economy of Public Policy

“…Robinson et al 2007;Mortensen 2005;Baumgartner et al 2006). Recent work examines the precise nature of these institutional influences on policy punctuations (Epp and Baumgartner 2017) and the distribution of attention (Jones 2017).…”