Policy‐Induced Risk and Responsive Participation: The Effect of a Son's Conscription Risk on the Voting Behavior of His Parents

Davenport, Tiffany C.

doi:10.1111/ajps.12117

Cited by 17 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…First, one body of literature is interested in political engagement and participation, including turnout, party membership, contact to politicians, political efficacy, and civic participation (for an introduction to the literature on policies and civic participation, see Campbell, ). These studies focus on how policies provide resources reducing the cost of participating in politics, specific incentives for people to participate, as well as information that makes people more likely to engage in politics (Davenport, ; MacLean, ; Mettler, ; Mettler & Welch, ; Munoz, Anduiza, & Rico, ; Shore, ).…”

Section: Outcomes and Mechanisms In Policy Feedback Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy Feedback Effects on Mass Publics: A Quantitative Review

Larsen¹

2018

Policy Studies Journal

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There has been an impressive stride in the research on policy feedback effects on mass publics over recent years. However, we lack systematic evidence on how large such policy feedback effects are in the literature. This article provides a review of 65 published studies and quantifies the findings and key themes in the policy feedback literature. The results show a great degree of heterogeneity in the domains and outcomes being studied and in the effects of policies on the public. In line with the findings from narrative reviews, feedback effects are greater for outcomes related to political participation and engagement. Last, the review sheds light on important theoretical and methodological limitations to be addressed in future research.

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Section: Outcomes and Mechanisms In Policy Feedback Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy Feedback Effects on Mass Publics: A Quantitative Review

Larsen¹

2018

Policy Studies Journal

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“…In some cases, we think they do. One example is Davenport (2015), who examines the effect of casualties and low draft numbers on parents' turnout during the Vietnam War. She finds that parents whose children are at high risk of being drafted (low lottery numbers) and who live in towns that have casualties, are more likely to turn out.…”

Section: Frequency and Disclosure Of Suppression Effects In Observatimentioning

confidence: 99%

Achieving Statistical Significance with Covariates and without Transparency

Lenz¹,

Sahn²

2017

Preprint

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How often do articles depend on suppression effects for their findings? How often do they disclose this fact? By suppression effects, we mean control-variable-induced increases in estimated effect sizes. Researchers generally scrutinize suppression effects as they want reassurance that researchers have a strong explanation for them, especially when the statistical significance of the key finding depends on them. In a re-analysis of observational studies from a leading journal, we find that over 30% of articles depend on suppression effects for statistical significance. Although increases in key effect estimates from including control variables are of course potentially justifiable, none of the articles justify or disclose them. These findings may point to a hole in the review process: journals are accepting articles that depend on suppression effects without readers, reviewers, or editors being made aware.

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“…Others have found that the effect of casualties on war support varies according to casualty trends (Gartner ), framing of the war's costs (Boettcher and Cobb ), inequalities in the composition of casualties (Kriner and Shen ), and elite cues (Berinsky ; Zaller ) ; Davenport ; Gartner and Segura ). By increasing the salience of casualties, recent information about casualties that happen close to home has a greater effect than being informed about those that are temporally and spatially distant.…”

Section: War Attitudes and Political Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although scholars have devoted considerable attention to war and vote choice, much less research has focused on voter participation. Some studies have examined turnout in the context of a single conflict or country (Davenport ; Karol and Miguel ; Kriner and Shen ), but to our knowledge no research has examined the effect of casualties on turnout cross‐nationally in established democracies.…”

Section: War Attitudes and Political Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

Death and Turnout: The Human Costs of War and Voter Participation in Democracies

Koch

Nicholson

2015

American J Political Sci

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War heightens public interest in politics, especially when human lives are lost. We examine whether, and how, combat casualties affect the decision to vote in established democracies. Drawing from social psychology research on mortality salience, we expect increasing casualties to increase the salience of death, information that moves people to defend their worldview, especially nationalistic and ideological values. By heightening the importance of values, we propose that combat casualties increase the benefits of voting. In particular, we expect the effect of combat casualties to be pronounced among the least politically engaged. Using both cross-national data of elections in 23 democracies over a 50-year period and survey data from the United States and United Kingdom during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, we found that mounting casualties increase turnout. Furthermore, as expected, we found the effect of casualties to be most pronounced among those least interested in politics. for helpful comments and suggestions. democracies over a 50-year period. At the individual level of analysis, we examine survey data from the United States and United Kingdom during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, finding that geographically and temporally proximate casualties increase turnout. Furthermore, we found that casualties increase turnout by reaching the least politically engaged members of society, those who report little interest in politics.The results are relevant to studies of international relations and voter participation, connecting domestic politics and international conflict, especially how mass politics might inform elite decision making. Research in this vein suggests that it is the fear of losing office, or declining public approval, that affects the foreign policies of democratic states (Koch and Sullivan 2010; Palmer, London, and Regan 2004). In both anticipatory representation frameworks (Baum 2004;Sobel 2001) and audience costs frameworks (Fearon 1994), potential shifts in public opinion or the mobilization of new voters is likely to constrain leaders from acting, fearing either a

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Policy‐Induced Risk and Responsive Participation: The Effect of a Son's Conscription Risk on the Voting Behavior of His Parents

Cited by 17 publications

References 46 publications

Policy Feedback Effects on Mass Publics: A Quantitative Review

Policy Feedback Effects on Mass Publics: A Quantitative Review

Achieving Statistical Significance with Covariates and without Transparency

Death and Turnout: The Human Costs of War and Voter Participation in Democracies

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