Policy and Policy Response on the Court: A Theoretical and Empirical Examination of the Three-Point Line Extension in Basketball

Abstract

This paper considers recent and historical changes in the three-point line distance at the NCAA and NBA levels as an example of policy change with highly-measurable outcome(s). The paper presents several empirical tests describing a point-maximizing basketball team's optimal allocation of two-point and three-point shots. It does so primarily in the context that the NCAA Men's Basketball three-point line was extended from 20′9″ to 21′9″ in advance of the 2019–20 season, and similar analysis for the NBA in the 1990s. We find that a three-point line extension significantly lowers three- and two-point shot proficiency, while decreasing (increasing) three-point (two-point) shot volume.

Wages, Talent, and Demand for NCAA Sport After the Alston v. NCAA Antitrust Case

“…That is, unrestricted market compensation for NCAA athletes is out-of-sample—hence Alston v. NCAA and prior NCAA antitrust cases such as O’Bannon v. NCAA (2014) —such that the existence or location of the line cannot be empirically confirmed. In the largely empirically friendly domain of sports economics (see, e.g., Croxson & James Reade, 2014; Ehrlich et al, 2022; Fan & Wang, 2018; Jin et al, 2019; Kahane et al, 2013; Sanders, 2022; Wu, 2022 for examples of sport labor market transparency), the lack of empirical knowledge in the present context represents an exception. Moreover, it is not clear that goods and services that come to be attributed as repugnant in a given society are, in fact, popularly so.…”