Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool

Larsson, Aron; Fasth, Tobias; Wärnhjelm, Mathias; Ekenberg, Love; Danielson, Mats

doi:10.1002/mcda.1634

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…One vital issue is the comprehensiveness regarding the recognition of the policy problem that initiates a policy process. As previous research has indicated and the findings of this study confirm, the perceptions concerning the modes of transport and the stakeholders involved are incomplete and unbalanced due to historical pathways, local circumstances and individual, institutional and societal biases [2,[89][90][91]. These conditions and incomplete assessments result in individual cognitive models regarding the policy problem, which are explainable by the iceberg theory [92]; that is, major parts of the problem are not made explicit or visible to a certain stakeholder.…”

Section: Implications For the Multi-level System Of Governancesupporting

confidence: 56%

Towards a Holistic Perspective on Future Transportation Systems: A Swedish Case and a Conceptual Framework

Grosse

2022

Future Transportation

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Critical infrastructure systems—such as transportation—are the backbone of society. Infrastructure development can thus be acknowledged as a common societal concern in the field of governance, and its recognition as a policy problem is crucial to proper decision making. This study aims to build an in-depth understanding of the multi-level system concerned with transportation and applies a soft systems methodology to structure the investigation. The system analysis and conceptual modelling rests on publicly available documents and policies, group meetings and a workshop with stakeholders from the local, regional and national levels. The paper provides a thorough analysis of the Swedish transportation system through public policy and the perceptions of municipal officials. In addition, it proposes a novel conceptual framework of the transportation system, including a detailed discussion of stakeholders, activities and perspectives. Although transportation is vital for many stakeholders, improving only transport infrastructure does not guarantee regional growth. Therefore, the proposed framework constitutes a novel basis for constructive dialogue among concerned parties regarding improvements to transportation. Thereby, the paper provides an understanding of a society’s transportation system that can be used to inform agenda setting for critical infrastructure governance. Further discussion in the scientific community and with officials entrusted with public administration could further validate and deepen the proposed understanding of the perspectives and constraints in the examined context and beyond.

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Section: Implications For the Multi-level System Of Governancesupporting

confidence: 56%

Towards a Holistic Perspective on Future Transportation Systems: A Swedish Case and a Conceptual Framework

Grosse

2022

Future Transportation

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“…Because of the complexity of these calculations, we use the state-of-the-art multi-criteria software tool DecideIT 3.0 for the analysis, which allows for imprecision of the kinds that exist in this case. DecideIT is based on patented algorithms [53] and several versions have been successfully used in a variety of decision situations, such as large-scale energy planning [54], allocation planning [55], demining [56], financial risks [57], gold mining [58] and many others [59].…”

Section: Multi-criteria Decision Modelling and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for COVID-19 Pandemic Intervention Modelling and Analysis for Policy Formation Support in Botswana

Ekenberg

Fasth

Komendantova

et al. 2022

Int J on Adv. in ICT for Emerging Countries

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The purpose of this research was to develop a methodological framework that could be applied for policy formation in situations having a high level of uncertainty and heterogeneity of existing opinions among involved stakeholders about risk mitigation and management such as COVID-19 pandemic risk. In this paper, we present such a framework and its application for policy decision-making in Botswana for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of the proposed model is twofold: firstly, to supply decision-makers with reliable and usable epidemiologic modelling since measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus were initially to a large extent based on various epidemiologic risk assessments. Secondly, given that some sets of measures adopted in other parts of the world were progressively imposing high or even very high social and economic costs on the countries which adopted these measures, we provided a multi-criteria decision support model which could be used in order to weigh different policy approaches to combat the virus spread taking into consideration local impact assessments across a variety of societal areas. We describe how the formulation of a national COVID-19 strategy and policy in Botswana in 2020 was aided by using ICT decision support models as a vital information source. Then we present the virus spread simulation model and its results which are connected to a multi-criteria decision support model. Finally, we discuss how the framework can be further developed for the needs of Botswana to optimise hazard management options in the case of handling COVID-19 and other pandemic scenarios. The significant research contribution is on advancing the research frontier regarding a methodology of including the heterogeneity of views and identification of compromise solutions in policy-relevant discourses under a high degree of uncertainty.

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“…There are several studies investigating specific performance aspects of interventions against pandemics but they are most often limited to a single scenario and they are seldom designed to explicitly acknowledge the inherent uncertainties in both simulation results and scenario likelihoods. We have previously applied more dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis approaches to synthesize outcome predictions and stakeholder preferences from multiple perspectives into decision recommendations (27). Applied to the COVID-19 mitigation problem, the methodological components could, for instance, be partitioned into (i) a co-creative preference elicitation component, (ii) an epidemiological component, (iii) a socioeconomic component, and (iv) an aggregation and analysis component.…”

Section: The Decision Analytical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of the complexity in these calculations, we use the software tool DecideIT for the analysis which allows for imprecision of the kinds that exist in this case. The tool is based on patented algorithms (39) and several versions have been successfully used in a variety of decision situations, such as large-scale energy planning (37), allocation planning (27), demining (40), financial risks (41), gold mining (42), and many others (43).…”

Section: The Evaluation Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi-Criteria Framework for Pandemic Response Measures

Ekenberg

Mihai

Fasth

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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In managing the COVID-19 pandemic, several compelling narratives seem to have played a significant role in the decision-making processes regarding which risk mitigation and management measures to implement. Many countries were to a large extent unprepared for such a situation, even though predictions about a significant probability for a pandemic to occur existed, and national governments of several countries often acted in an uncoordinated manner, which resulted in many inconsistencies in the disaster risk reduction processes. Limited evidence has also made room for strategic narratives meant to persuade the public of the chosen set of actions, even though the degree of uncertainty regarding the outcomes of these was high, further complicating the situation. In this article, we assume a normative standpoint regarding rhapsodic decision making and suggest an integrated framework for a more elaborated decision analysis under the ambiguity of how to contain the virus spread from a policy point of view, while considering epidemiologic estimations and socioeconomic factors in a multi-stakeholder-multi-criteria context based on a co-creative work process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, as well as preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups. The framework, applied in our paper on Romania for demonstrative purposes, is used for evaluating mitigation measures for catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 situation, to mobilize better response strategies for future scenarios related to pandemics and other hazardous events, as well as to structure the production and analysis of narratives on the current pandemic effects.

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Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool

Cited by 10 publications

References 33 publications

Towards a Holistic Perspective on Future Transportation Systems: A Swedish Case and a Conceptual Framework

Towards a Holistic Perspective on Future Transportation Systems: A Swedish Case and a Conceptual Framework

A Framework for COVID-19 Pandemic Intervention Modelling and Analysis for Policy Formation Support in Botswana

A Multi-Criteria Framework for Pandemic Response Measures

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