Polarization in America: two possible futures

Abstract

The rise of polarization over the past 25 years has many Americans worried about the state of politics. This worry is understandable: up to a point, polarization can help democracies, but when it becomes too vast, such that entire swaths of the population refuse to consider each other's views, this thwarts democratic methods for solving societal problems. Given widespread polarization in America, what lies ahead? We describe two possible futures, each based on different sets of theory and evidence. On one hand, polarization may be on a self-reinforcing upward trajectory fueled by misperception and avoidance; on the other hand it may have recently reached the apex of its pendulum swing. We conclude that it is too early to know which future we are approaching, but that our ability to address misperceptions may be one key factor.

Moral Polarization Predicts Support for Authoritarian and Progressive Strong Leaders via the Perceived Breakdown of Society

“…For example, political polarization has been tied to negative outgroup evaluations, as well as reduced trust and efficacy (Enders & Armaly, 2019), increased political engagement (Westfall et al, 2015), and intolerance toward ideologically dissimilar groups in defense of worldviews across the political spectrum (Brandt & Crawford, 2020; Brandt et al, 2014). It has also been linked to democratic erosion (Heltzel & Laurin, 2020; Vegetti, 2019), the increased spread of misinformation (i.e., “fake news,” conspiracy theories; Van Bavel et al, 2021), and greater distrust and antagonism during times of crisis (e.g., the COVID‐19 pandemic; Crimston & Selvanathan, 2020). However, moral polarization is distinct from standard political polarization in crucial ways.…”

Political polarization of conservation issues in the era of COVID-19: An examination of partisan perspectives and priorities in the United States

“…First, it is widely accepted that COVID-19 has become a politicized issue among the US electorate (Pew Research Center, 2020d). Political polarization is the adoption of increasingly dissimilar attitudes and opinions towards policies or issues among subsets of the population ( Heltzel & Laurin, 2020 ). This polarization, fueled by US media and politicians, has weakened the public health response and resulted in worse impacts per capita compared to other industrialized nations, thus leading to strong opinions among the US electorate ( Bruine de Bruin et al, 2020 , Mordecai and Connaughton, 2020 ).…”

Metadehumanization erodes democratic norms during the 2020 presidential election

“…Partisans’ misperceptions of their political opponents initiates a positive feedback loop of reciprocal animosity, which reinforces overly negative perceptions (Hetzel & Laurin, 2020). This contributes to intractable partisan conflict and destabilizes American democracy (Barber & McCarty, 2016).…”