Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor?

Dyck, Markus; Soon, Willie; Baydack, Richard K.; Legates, David R.; Baliunas, S. L.; Ball, Timothy; Hancock, Lucy

doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.03.002

Cited by 42 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…The dynamic, rather than climatic, aspect of seaice change is well exemplified in a recent satellite study by Scott and Marshall (2010), who aimed to resolve a dilemma: Whereas there has been a trend toward earlier summer breakup of sea ice in western Hudson Bay, Canada, which some authors (Stirling et al, 1999;Gagnon and Gough, 2005) have attributed to long-term warming in the region, Dyck et al (2007) report no regional warming trend has elapsed sufficient to have caused this change.…”

Section: Arctic Sea Icementioning

confidence: 99%

Observations: Cryosphere

2014

Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis

141

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Section: Arctic Sea Icementioning

confidence: 99%

Observations: Cryosphere

2014

Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis

141

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“…Many groups in society would welcome an adaptationist argument as a reason to ignore human-induced environmental change. For example, it has been suggested that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay may 'adapt' to climate change by increasing their consumption of terrestrial prey and possibly hibernate more like brown bears (Ursus arctos [76]). With a generation time of approximately 12 years [77] and accepting the estimate of 25 generations for ER (and also assuming limited additive genetic variation and plasticity), polar bears would require approximately 300 years to adapt.…”

Section: Applications: the Importance Of Evolutionary Rescue In Consementioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary rescue in vertebrates: evidence, applications and uncertainty

Wal

Garant

Festa-Bianchet

et al. 2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

112

113

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The current rapid rate of human-driven environmental change presents wild populations with novel conditions and stresses. Theory and experimental evidence for evolutionary rescue present a promising case for species facing environmental change persisting via adaptation. Here, we assess the potential for evolutionary rescue in wild vertebrates. Available information on evolutionary rescue was rare and restricted to abundant and highly fecund species that faced severe intentional anthropogenic selective pressures. However, examples from adaptive tracking in common species and genetic rescues in species of conservation concern provide convincing evidence in favour of the mechanisms of evolutionary rescue. We conclude that low population size, long generation times and limited genetic variability will result in evolutionary rescue occurring rarely for endangered species without intervention. Owing to the risks presented by current environmental change and the possibility of evolutionary rescue in nature, we suggest means to study evolutionary rescue by mapping genotype → phenotype → demography → fitness relationships, and priorities for applying evolutionary rescue to wild populations.

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“…Uncertainty in range-wide responses by the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) to changes in sea ice conditions (Aars et al 2006*;Freeman and Wenzel 2006;dyck et al 2007;Stirling et al 2008) can affect contemporary estimates of sizes and dynamics of Polar Bear populations (Taylor et al 2005;Aars et al 2006*;Taylor et al 2006;dowsley 2007). Canadian Polar Bears are monitored in accordance with the 1973 Agree ment on the Conservation of Polar Bears (Aars et al 2006*;Freeman and Wenzel 2006;Stirling and Parkinson 2006) using "sound conservation practices based on the best available scientific data" (Canada et al 1973*).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpretations of Polar Bear (<em>Ursus maritimus</em>) Tracks by Inuit Hunters: Inter-rater Reliability and Inferences Concerning Accuracy

et al. 2011

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due to their tracking experience in pursuing Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus), Inuit hunters could provide non-invasive estimates of Polar Bear characteristics from tracks, and Polar Bear monitoring programs could benefit from Inuit input. We determined i) inter-rater reliability of estimates of the sex, age, and size of Polar Bears, and estimates of the age of tracks made by a group of nine Inuit hunters who interpreted 78 tracks; ii) we made preliminary comparisons of sex and size estimates with conventional (scientific) estimates; iii) we catalogued the Polar Bear hunting experience and track interpretation techniques of nine Inuit hunters; and iv) we explored relationships between hunting experience and the ability to interpret tracks. The group of Inuit hunters made reliable and consistent estimates of Polar Bear sex, age, and size, as well as estimates of age of track (after data from one participant was excluded). Although our comparisons are based on small samples, our findings suggest that Inuit hunters may be accurate in estimating the sex of Polar Bears (74.42% agreement with genetic determinations) and the size of Polar Bears from their tracks. our data indicate shared tracking techniques used by hunters may explain high agreement in making specific estimates, while individual hunting experience and particular methods used to interpret tracks may lead to inter-rater reliability and accuracy in interpreting tracks.

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Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor?

Cited by 42 publications

References 67 publications

Observations: Cryosphere

Observations: Cryosphere

Evolutionary rescue in vertebrates: evidence, applications and uncertainty

Interpretations of Polar Bear (<em>Ursus maritimus</em>) Tracks by Inuit Hunters: Inter-rater Reliability and Inferences Concerning Accuracy

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