Point of View on Outcome Prediction Models in Post-Stroke Motor Recovery

Abstract

Stroke is a leading cause of disability worldwide which can cause significant and persistent upper limb (UL) impairment. It is difficult to predict UL motor recovery after stroke and to forecast the expected outcomes of rehabilitation interventions during the acute and subacute phases when using clinical data alone. Accurate prediction of response to treatment could allow for more timely and targeted interventions, thereby improving recovery, resource allocation, and reducing the economic impact of post-stroke disability. Initial motor impairment is currently the strongest predictor of post-stroke motor recovery. Despite significant progress, current prediction models could be refined with additional predictors, and an emphasis on the time dependency of patient-specific predictions of UL recovery profiles. In the current paper a panel of experts provide their opinion on additional predictors and aspects of the literature that can help advance stroke outcome prediction models. Potential strategies include close attention to post-stroke data collection timeframes and adoption of individual-computerized modeling methods connected to a patient’s health record. These models should account for the non-linear and the variable recovery pattern of spontaneous neurological recovery. Additionally, input data should be extended to include cognitive, genomic, sensory, neural injury, and function measures as additional predictors of recovery. The accuracy of prediction models may be further improved by including standardized measures of outcome. Finally, we consider the potential impact of refined prediction models on healthcare costs.