PLUS-Model Based Multi-Scenario Land Space Simulation of the Lower Yellow River Region and Its Ecological Effects

Abstract

The rapid urbanization in recent years as a vehicle for social growth and ecological construction has resulted in a significant transformation of the spatial structure of the land in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. Based on this, the current study used the PLUS model to simulate the future territorial spatial pattern of the lower reaches of the Yellow River in various development scenarios to reveal differences in the ecosystem’s spatial distribution and provide a reference for optimizing territorial spatial usage and ecological protection. The results show that the overall accuracy of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model’s simulation results was 0.748, the Kappa coefficient was 0.812, and the simulation effect was good. The simulation results for each land space in various situations reveal a preferential spatial development trend model. In the territorial and spatial priority scenario, development was reasonably balanced, which is consistent with the status of the quantitative structure of the territorial space of the study area during 2015. From 2015 to 2035, the value of ecosystem services will change in different ways depending on the scenario and the set priorities. The ecosystem service value decreased in the production space and living space priority development scenarios, while it increased in the ecological space and national space priority development scenarios. The PLUS model has a high degree of applicability to the spatial pattern development simulation of the lower Yellow River region, and the results of this multi-scenario simulation and ecological environmental effect study may be used as a reference for future territorial spatial planning and policy formulation in the region.

Evolutionary Trend Analysis of Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Load in Chongqing Based on Land Use Simulation

“…The model can compensate for the evolutionary ability of land patches under different policies of other models such as FLUS, CLUE-S, and CA-Markov. It is also suitable for simulating regions of larger scales with high simulation accuracy [34]. In this study, we compared our results with those of other studies ( [29,[34][35][36]; the specific results are shown in Table 6) and found that our kappa coefficients were 0.92 and 0.89, respectively.…”

“…It is also suitable for simulating regions of larger scales with high simulation accuracy [34]. In this study, we compared our results with those of other studies ( [29,[34][35][36]; the specific results are shown in Table 6) and found that our kappa coefficients were 0.92 and 0.89, respectively. This indicates that our simulation accuracy is high, which has certain advantages in accuracy and provides more reference value.…”

Modeling future land use and land cover under different scenarios using patch-generating land use simulation model. A case study of Ndola district

“…It overcomes limitations such as the inability to simulate the mutual attraction and evolution of open space and urban land under different policies. Additionally, research indicates that the PLUS model effectively simulates LULC and landscape patterns, surpassing the accuracy of models like FLUS, CLUE-S, and ANN-CA (Liang, et al, 2020;Lu et al, 2022). Hence, this study aims to address this gap by utilizing the PLUS model to simulate various scenarios and forecast the future patterns of land use and forest cover to offer a practical and methodological solution for the spatial planning of the Ndola district.…”

“…Interwoven intricately with ecosystems and human wellbeing, these services constitute a significant focal point in land and spatial planning endeavors (Lu et al, 2022). The disproportionate burden of deforestation is starkly evident in developing nations across Latin America, Asia, and Africa compared to their developed counterparts, highlighting a pressing global concern (Humphreys, 2009).…”

Combining LSTM and PLUS Models to Predict Future Urban Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Case in Dongying City, China

“…To date, many scholars have made various applications based on the PLUS model. Lu et al [36] used the PLUS model to mimic the geospatial structure of the lower Yellow River at different stages of future development. Lin et al [37] used the Fuxian Lake basin as an example to incorporate the constrained territory of LUCC and investigate the optimum model for replicating LUCC in this basin utilizing CA-Markov, FLUS, and models.…”