Planning from a Future Vision: Inverse Modeling in Spatial Planning

Abstract

Spatial planning seeks to regulate demand for land resources with a view to securing the well-being of urban and rural communities. It identifies the decisions that should be made in light of a preferred future development. Yet, preferences for future development change as demands for housing, recreation, food, and life styles are changing rapidly. In this study we aim to introduce a new approach for spatial planning, where the point of departure is not current data, but a future desired by stakeholders. To this end, we propose an inverse modeling approach where the result is a set of values for parameters identified as being key to reach a desired future. We apply the approach to a case study in a metropolitan area in Switzerland in order to illustrate its capabilities for sustainable planning. We invert a hedonic house-price model for identifying urban development options in the case-study area. We show how one can determine the relevant trade-offs between locational, structural, and socioeconomic characteristics given a desired house-price level, and the possible locations and relevant trade-offs for areas where future noise-emitting factories are to be planned. We discuss advantages and shortcomings of the approach for planners and draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the approach as a means of encouraging lay people and stakeholders to become involved efficiently in sustainable development issues.

A GIS-Based Approach in Support of Spatial Planning for Renewable Energy: A Case Study of Fukushima, Japan

“…Thus, consciousness in planning for energy demand and supply between urban and rural areas is important at the regional scale. According to Gret-Regamey and Crespo [43], spatial planning role in urban and rural planning is that it seeks to regulate demand for land resources with a view to securing the well-being of urban and rural communities. Unlike general energy or urban planning, spatial planning aims to organize future activities distribution in the physical environment.…”

Untitled

“…In summary, despite the above mentioned challenges, we think that this study addresses an interesting way to move ahead to extend the novel work of Grêt Crespo (2011) andGrêt Regamey (2012), who proposed the use of the inverse model in urban planning. The process of forecasting possesses an intrinsic risk of missing the target, even when using complex mathematical modelling.…”

“…In other words, they use current data to forecast the future states of cities. In this regards, Grêt Regamey and Crespo (2011) claim that this can lead to a dead end if the drivers of current problems become the main drivers of the planning process, thus transferring our problems to the future. To deal with this inconvenience, the same authors have proposed a novel approach, denoted as planning from a future vision: an inverse model in spatial planning.…”