Abstract:This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length… Show more
“…3,[51][52][53][54] Furthermore, recent GMMs constrained with data from the region 55 we investigate in this study to reveal a great similitude to NGA-W2 GMMs, for magnitudes close to M w 7. With respect to the geometry of the fault, we use reported fault traces in the Marmara region, 56 to constrain the fault plane as shown in the yellow line in Figure 6.…”
Section: Description Of the Earthquake Source Methodsmentioning
Scenario-based earthquake simulations at regional scales hold the promise in advancing the state-of-the-art in seismic risk assessment studies. In this study, a computational workflow is presented that combines (i) a broadband Green's function-based fault-rupture and ground motion simulation-herein carried out using the "UCSB (University of California at Santa Barbara) method", (ii) a three-dimensional physics-based regional-scale wave propagation simulation that is resolved at max = 11.2 Hz, and (iii) a local soil-foundation-structure finite element analysis model. These models are interfaced with each other using the domain reduction method. The innermost local model-implemented in ABAQUS-is additionally enveloped with perfectly matched layer boundaries that absorb outbound waves scattered by the structures contained within it. The intermediate wave propagation simulation is carried out using Hercules, which is an explicit time-stepping finite element code that is developed and licensed by the CMU-QUAKE group. The devised workflow is applied to a 80 × 40 × 40 km 3 region on the European side of Istanbul, which was modeled using detailed soil stratigraphy data and realistic fault rupture properties, which are available from prior microzonation surveys and earthquake scenario studies. The innermost local model comprises a chevron-braced steel frame building supported by a shallow foundation slab, which, in turn, rests atop a three-dimensional soil domain. To demonstrate the utility of the workflow, results obtained using various simplified soil-structure interaction analysis techniques are compared with those from the detailed direct model. While the aforementioned demonstration has a limited scope, the devised workflow can be used in a multitude of ways, for example, to examine the effects of shallow-layer soil nonlinearities and surface topography, to devise site-and structure-specific seismic fragilities, and for calibrating regional loss models, to name a few.
“…3,[51][52][53][54] Furthermore, recent GMMs constrained with data from the region 55 we investigate in this study to reveal a great similitude to NGA-W2 GMMs, for magnitudes close to M w 7. With respect to the geometry of the fault, we use reported fault traces in the Marmara region, 56 to constrain the fault plane as shown in the yellow line in Figure 6.…”
Section: Description Of the Earthquake Source Methodsmentioning
Scenario-based earthquake simulations at regional scales hold the promise in advancing the state-of-the-art in seismic risk assessment studies. In this study, a computational workflow is presented that combines (i) a broadband Green's function-based fault-rupture and ground motion simulation-herein carried out using the "UCSB (University of California at Santa Barbara) method", (ii) a three-dimensional physics-based regional-scale wave propagation simulation that is resolved at max = 11.2 Hz, and (iii) a local soil-foundation-structure finite element analysis model. These models are interfaced with each other using the domain reduction method. The innermost local model-implemented in ABAQUS-is additionally enveloped with perfectly matched layer boundaries that absorb outbound waves scattered by the structures contained within it. The intermediate wave propagation simulation is carried out using Hercules, which is an explicit time-stepping finite element code that is developed and licensed by the CMU-QUAKE group. The devised workflow is applied to a 80 × 40 × 40 km 3 region on the European side of Istanbul, which was modeled using detailed soil stratigraphy data and realistic fault rupture properties, which are available from prior microzonation surveys and earthquake scenario studies. The innermost local model comprises a chevron-braced steel frame building supported by a shallow foundation slab, which, in turn, rests atop a three-dimensional soil domain. To demonstrate the utility of the workflow, results obtained using various simplified soil-structure interaction analysis techniques are compared with those from the detailed direct model. While the aforementioned demonstration has a limited scope, the devised workflow can be used in a multitude of ways, for example, to examine the effects of shallow-layer soil nonlinearities and surface topography, to devise site-and structure-specific seismic fragilities, and for calibrating regional loss models, to name a few.
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