Physiological Time Model for Predicting Adult Emergence of Western Corn Rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in the Texas High Plains

Stevenson, Douglass E.; Michels, G. J.; Bible, John B.; Jackman, John A.; Harris, Marvin K.

doi:10.1093/jee/101.5.1584

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…If a particular environment does not provide sufficient degree‐days for the complete development of a species it will be unlikely to persist. Degree‐days have been utilized extensively by pest managers in agricultural systems (Stevenson et al 2008) but to a lesser extent in the management of invasive insects. Nevertheless, work incorporating temperature and time dependent growth or degree‐day data on invasive ants has indicated the utility of this approach (Korzukhin et al 2001, Hartley and Lester 2003, Krushelnycky et al 2005).…”

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confidence: 99%

Integrating physiology, population dynamics and climate to make multi‐scale predictions for the spread of an invasive insect: the Argentine ant at Haleakala National Park, Hawaii

Hartley¹,

Krushelnycky²,

Lester³

2010

Ecography

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Mechanistic models for predicting species’ distribution patterns present particular advantages and challenges relative to models developed from statistical correlations between distribution and climate. They can be especially useful for predicting the range of invasive species whose distribution has not yet reached equilibrium. Here, we illustrate how a physiological model of development for the invasive Argentine ant can be connected to differences in micro‐site suitability, population dynamics and climatic gradients; processes operating at quite different spatial scales. Our study is located in the subalpine shrubland of Haleakala National Park, Hawaii, where the spread of Argentine ants Linepithema humile has been documented for the past twenty‐five years. We report four main results. First, at a microsite level, the accumulation of degree‐days recorded in potential ant nest sites under bare ground or rocks was significantly greater than under a groundcover of grassy vegetation. Second, annual degree‐days measured where population boundaries have not expanded (456–521 degree‐days), were just above the developmental requirements identified from earlier laboratory studies (445 degree‐days above 15.9°C). Third, rates of population expansion showed a strong linear relationship with annual degree‐days. Finally, an empirical relationship between soil degree‐days and climate variables mapped at a broader scale predicts the potential for future range expansion of Argentine ants at Haleakala, particularly to the west of the lower colony and the east of the upper colony. Variation in the availability of suitable microsites, driven by changes in vegetation cover and ultimately climate, provide a hierarchical understanding of the distribution of Argentine ants close to their cold‐wet limit of climatic tolerances. We conclude that the integration of physiology, population dynamics and climate mapping holds much promise for making more robust predictions about the potential spread of invasive species.

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confidence: 99%

Integrating physiology, population dynamics and climate to make multi‐scale predictions for the spread of an invasive insect: the Argentine ant at Haleakala National Park, Hawaii

Hartley¹,

Krushelnycky²,

Lester³

2010

Ecography

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“…Ávila et al (2002) observed 449 SET DD based on the average daily soil temperature above 11.04°C at 0.10 m depth under maize canopy. Stevenson et al (2008) calculated the sum of degree-days for phenological events from the emergence onset to 99% adult WCR emergence. According to this model, the initial occurrence of WCR (1% occurrence) is expected after the air SET above 10°C and 600 DD.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wilde (1971) determined the developmental threshold to be 11°C for eggs that were collected in Minnesota and 12.8°C for eggs that were collected in Kansas. Stevenson et al (2008) calculated the sum of WCR DD as 10°C. An upper threshold temperature (12.7°C) for WCR development was used (Diffenbaugh et al 2008).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of adult western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte) emergence

Středa¹,

Vahala²,

Středová³

2013

Plant Prot. Sci.

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Středa T., Vahala O., Středová H. (2012): Prediction of adult western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte) emergence. Plant Protect. Sci., 49: 89-97.The sum of effective temperatures (SET) of adult western corn rootworm (WCR) occurrence was determined based on several criteria. The risk of WCR occurrence was mapped, and the areas of continuous reproduction of WCR in the Czech Republic were identified. The daily soil SET was observed until the initial adult WCR occurrence, and it ranged from 414 degree days (DD) when the lower threshold temperature (LTT) was 12.5°C at 0.02 m depth to 719 DD (LTT of 10°C at a depth of 0.05 m). The daily air SET ranged from 415 DD (LTT 12.5°C at a height of 2 m) to 726 DD (LTT of 10°C at a height of 0.05 m).

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“…In total, 18, 13, and 15 data sets, each representing a different orchard location or sample year, were used to model A. nuxvorella moth ßight, oviposition, and Þrst observed nut entry, respectively. Stevenson et al (2008) reported that a modiÞed Gompertz function best Þt Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte adult emergence patterns when compared with 18 other mathematical functions. Based upon this analysis, we chose a modiÞed Gompertz function to model capture of adult male A. nuxvorella in pheromone traps and oviposition activity as measured by cumulative proportional egg deposition on nutlets.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prediction error of the bioÞx and frost-free models was calculated as the difference in days between the predicted and observed event (Stevenson et al 2008). Negative and positive values represent a model predicting events later and earlier than the observed event, respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Degree-Day Model Initiated by Pheromone Trap Captures for Managing Pecan Nut Casebearer (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in Pecans

Knutson¹,

Muegge²

2010

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Field observations from pecan, Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) Koch, orchards in Texas were used to develop and validate a degree-day model of cumulative proportional adult flight and oviposition and date of first observed nut entry by larvae of the first summer generation of the pecan nut casebearer, Acrobasis nuxvorella Nuenzig (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). The model was initiated on the date of first sustained capture of adults in pheromone traps. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures were used to determine the sum of degree-days from onset to 99% moth flight and oviposition and the date on which first summer generation larvae were first observed penetrating pecan nuts. Cumulative proportional oviposition (y) was described by a modified Gompertz equation, y = 106.05 x exp(-(exp(3.11 - 0.00669 x (x - 1), with x = cumulative degree-days at a base temperature of 3.33 degrees C. Cumulative proportional moth flight (y) was modeled as y = 102.62 x exp(- (exp(1.49 - 0.00571 x (x - 1). Model prediction error for dates of 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90% cumulative oviposition was 1.3 d and 83% of the predicted dates were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. Prediction error for date of first observed nut entry was 2.2 d and 77% of model predictions were within +/- 2 d of the observed event. The model provides ample lead time for producers to implement orchard scouting to assess pecan nut casebearer infestations and to apply an insecticide if needed to prevent economic loss.

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Physiological Time Model for Predicting Adult Emergence of Western Corn Rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in the Texas High Plains

Cited by 19 publications

References 0 publications

Integrating physiology, population dynamics and climate to make multi‐scale predictions for the spread of an invasive insect: the Argentine ant at Haleakala National Park, Hawaii

Integrating physiology, population dynamics and climate to make multi‐scale predictions for the spread of an invasive insect: the Argentine ant at Haleakala National Park, Hawaii

Prediction of adult western corn rootworm (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte) emergence

A Degree-Day Model Initiated by Pheromone Trap Captures for Managing Pecan Nut Casebearer (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in Pecans

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