Physics, fracking, fuel, and the future

Marder, Michael; Patzek, Tadeusz W; Tinker, Scott W.

doi:10.1063/pt.3.3236

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The Patzek et al 2013 model was used in the study of shale gas production in the US conducted by the Bureau of Economic Geology at UT, Austin, with partial funding provided by the Sloan Foundation and Shell. − For reasons outlined in refs and , earlier model restrictions on EURs were relaxed, − resulting in the Barnett and Fayetteville shale gas production outlooks that were overly optimistic. The Haynesville shale production outlook in Gülen et al 2015 was more realistic …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling, and Forecasts of Gas Production in the Barnett Shale

et al. 2019

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We develop a new method of predicting fieldwide gas or oil production from unconventional reservoirs, using the Barnett shale as an illustration. First, we divide the qualifying 13 141 horizontal gas wells in the Barnett into six static samples in which reservoir quality and completion technologies are similar. These samples contain wells of all ages. The Barnett samples coincide with the main gas producing counties, Tarrant, Johnson, Denton, Wise, Parker, and Hood. Second, for each sample, we use a purely data-driven nonparametric approach to arrive at appropriate generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions of gas production from the sample’s dynamic well cohorts with at least 1, 2, 3, ..., up to 14 years on production. We now have up to 14 cumulative probability distribution functions (cdfs) of annual well productivity per sample. From these cdfs, we stitch together six P 50, P 10, and P 90 statistical well prototypes, one per sample or county. Our statistical well prototypes are conditioned by well attrition, hydrofracture deterioration, pressure interference, well interference, progress in technology, and so forth. So far, there has been no physical scaling. Third, we fit the parameters of our physical scaling model to the statistical well prototypes and obtain their smooth extrapolations to 30 years on production. At late times, we add radial inflow of gas external to the stimulated reservoir volumes of the mean wells. Fourth, we calculate the number of potential wells per square mile of each Barnett county and schedule future drilling programs. We then stack up the extended well prototypes to obtain the plausible forecasts of gas production in the Barnett until the year 2034. We predict that the six Barnett counties will ultimately produce 24.5 trillion standard cubic feet (Tscf) of gas from the existing wells. On energy equivalent basis, in this “do nothing” scenario, these counties will produce 4.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, making it one of the top producers of fuel for the US. Finally, we consider a possible addition of 4.5 Tscf from the future 3570 surviving wells or 6800 new wells drilled between 2019 and 2028. On the average, only 1/2 of the current Barnett wells will survive beyond 15 years on production.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling, and Forecasts of Gas Production in the Barnett Shale

et al. 2019

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“…Hydrofracturing liberates gas and oil from mudstones, often called shales, that form layers hundreds or thousands of meters deep and 30 to 100 m thick [1,2]. Hundreds of thousands of these "unconventional" wells have now been drilled, and the U.S. natural gas supply depends upon them [3,4]. The extraction process requires creating a fracture network through a subsurface stimulation process involving explosives, pressurized water, and sand [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solvable model of gas production decline from hydrofractured networks

2021

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We address questions that arose from studying gas and oil production from hydrofractured wells. Does past production predict the future? This depends on deducing from production as much as possible about the plausible geometries of the fracture network. We address the problem through a solvable model and use kinetic Monte Carlo and Green's function techniques to solve it. We have three main findings. First, at sufficiently long times, the production from all compact fracture networks is described by a universal function with two scaling parameters, one of which is the diffusivity of unbroken rock α and the second of which is a parameter V ext with units of volume. Second, for fracture networks where the power-law distribution of fracture spacings falls below a critical value (and this appears to be the case in practice), early-time production always scales as one over the square root of time. Third, the diffusivity α that sets the scale for late-time production is inherently difficult to estimate from production data, but the methods here provide the best hope of obtaining it and thus can determine the physics that will govern the decline of unconventional gas and oil wells.

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“…Introduction. Hydrofracturing [1,2] liberates gas from mudstones, often called shales, that are brittle residues of seabeds buried thousands of meters deep and around 30 meters thick. The extraction process involves creating a fracture network that extends over a distance on the order of a kilometer in one direction, and on the order of 200 meters in the perpendicular direction.…”

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Lattice Model for Production of Gas

Marder,

Eftekhari,

Patzek

2017

Preprint

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We define a lattice model for rock, absorbers, and gas that makes it possible to examine the flow of gas to a complicated absorbing boundary over long periods of time. The motivation is to deduce the geometry of the boundary from the time history of gas absorption. We find a solution to this model using Green's function techniques, and apply the solution to three absorbing networks of increasing complexity.

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Physics, fracking, fuel, and the future

Abstract: To contend with the challenges of fueling modern society, the physics community must collaborate with other disciplines and remain broadly engaged in research and education on energy.

Cited by 10 publications

References 9 publications

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling, and Forecasts of Gas Production in the Barnett Shale

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling, and Forecasts of Gas Production in the Barnett Shale

Solvable model of gas production decline from hydrofractured networks

Lattice Model for Production of Gas

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