Hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) are being
used as substitutes
for potent
greenhouse gas hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). However, the use and environmental
impacts of HFOs are of great concern due to the rapid degradation
of HFOs to produce persistent and phytotoxic trifluoroacetic acid
(TFA). Here, we provide a comprehensive projection of HFO emissions
in China during 2024–2060 for the first time. Under the Kigali
Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, China’s HFO emissions are
estimated to increase from 1.7 (1.3–2.3) to 148.8 (111.4–185.4)
kt in 2024–2060 with cumulative emissions of 2.8 (2.0–3.5)
Gt, and cumulative reduced HFCs emissions are evaluated to be 5.4
Gt CO2-equivalent. High HFO emissions would be distributed
mainly in the North China Plain and the eastern and coastal areas.
HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) contributes most of HFO emissions
with a cumulative emission of 1.7 Gt in 2024–2060, while the
cumulative increment of TFA deposition from HFO-1234yf emissions would
reach 0.4–1.0 Gt. The long-term national-gridded HFO emission
inventories can provide scientific support for evaluating the environmental
risks of HFOs and developing HFC phase-out pathways for addressing
climate change.