Phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change: the importance of cue variation

Abstract

One contribution of 13 to a theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.Phenotypic plasticity is a major mechanism of response to global change. However, current plastic responses will only remain adaptive under future conditions if informative environmental cues are still available. We briefly summarize current knowledge of the evolutionary origin and mechanistic underpinnings of environmental cues for phenotypic plasticity, before highlighting the potentially complex effects of global change on cue availability and reliability. We then illustrate some of these aspects with a case study, comparing plasticity of blue tit breeding phenology in two contrasted habitats: evergreen and deciduous forests. Using long-term datasets, we investigate the climatic factors linked to the breeding phenology of the birds and their main food source. Blue tits occupying different habitats differ extensively in the cues affecting laying date plasticity, as well as in the reliability of these cues as predictors of the putative driver of selective pressure, the date of caterpillar peak. The temporal trend for earlier laying date, detected only in the evergreen populations, is explained by increased temperature during their cue windows. Our results highlight the importance of integrating ecological mechanisms shaping variation in plasticity if we are to understand how global change will affect plasticity and its consequences for population biology.This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Pre-adaptation to climate change through topography-driven evolution of traits and their plasticity

“…Yet, conservation strategies aiming to mitigate climate change impacts in the absence of accurate projections could capitalize on natural variation in the ability of populations to cope with climate variability and uncertainty. Populations that have evolved in highly heterogeneous and temporarily variable environments likely retain a higher fitness for a wide range of environmental conditions than populations that are adapted to more homogeneous and stable environments (Reed et al 2010; Chevin & Lande 2011; Chevin & Hoffmann 2017; Bonamour et al 2019).…”

“…While plastic phenotypic variation underlying drought tolerance may support fitness in environments currently featured by heterogeneous soil humidity levels, heritable phenotypic variation is required for contemporary evolution towards an increase in drought tolerance and/or phenotypic plasticity for drought tolerance (Anderson et al 2011; Palacio-López et al 2015; Hoffmann et al 2017; Kingsolver & Buckley 2017). Genotypes that are capable of adjusting their phenotypes to changing soil moisture levels through plastic responses in particular represent a valuable yet understudied component of the evolutionary potential of natural populations in the context of climate change anticipated drought events (IPCC 2014; van Kleunen & Fischer 2005; Kingsolver & Buckley 2017; Bonamour et al 2019).…”

Variation in the seasonal germination niche across an elevational gradient: the role of germination cueing in current and future climates

“…Such shifts in environmental conditions can alter the availability and reliability of cues for life history timing and thus modify the seasonal niche. Cues may become decoupled, reducing the correlation between a cue and future conditions, or some cues may simply no longer occur (Miller-Rushing et al, 2010;Walck et al, 2011;Bonamour et al, 2019). Shifts in environmental conditions are expected to be particularly salient for early developmental stages, such as germination (Dalgleish et al, 2010;Walck et al, 2011), but few studies have examined the impact of shifting cues on germination timing and the consequences under climate change (Kimball et al, 2010;Walck et al, 2011;Parmesan and Hanley, 2015).…”

Global warming and chromosomal inversion adaptation in isolated islands:Drosophila subobscurapopulations from Madeira

“…As this explanation is not applicable to an isolated island, other hypotheses have to be explored, such as, for example, thermal plasticity (Bonamour et al . ; Kelly ). In this case, the direct influence of environmental factors (including temperature) on the development of individual phenotypes is considered a key element in the phenotypic change of populations and their persistence (Chevin et al .…”

“…Consequently, variations in the continental latitudinal clines according to global warming expectations could also be attributed to a greater or lesser extent to migration (Santos 2007). As this explanation is not applicable to an isolated island, other hypotheses have to be explored, such as, for example, thermal plasticity (Bonamour et al 2019;Kelly 2019). In this case, the direct influence of environmental factors (including temperature) on the development of individual phenotypes is considered a key element in the phenotypic change of populations and their persistence (Chevin et al 2010;Fragata et al 2016).…”