Phenomenological vs. biophysical models of thermal stress in aquatic eggs

Martin, Benjamin T.; Pike, Arthur C.; John, Sara N.; Hamda, Natnael; Roberts, Jason J.; Lindley, Steven T.; Danner, Eric M.

doi:10.1111/ele.12705

Cited by 54 publications

(118 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Salmon embryos develop faster at warmer temperatures (Beacham and Murray ), but can perish in exceedingly warm or low‐flowing waters (Martin et al. ). Following emergence, juvenile survival can decrease in warm and low‐flowing conditions (Kjelson et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warm, dry winters truncate timing and size distribution of seaward‐migrating salmon across a large, regulated watershed

Munsch

Greene

Johnson

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Ecologists are pressed to understand how climate constrains the timings of annual biological events (phenology). Climate influences on phenology are likely significant in estuarine watersheds because many watersheds provide seasonal fish nurseries where juvenile presence is synched with favorable conditions. While ecologists have long recognized that estuaries are generally important to juvenile fish, we incompletely understand the specific ecosystem dynamics that contribute to their nursery habitat value, limiting our ability to identify and protect vital habitat components. Here we examined the annual timing of juvenile coldwater fish migrating through a seasonally warm, hydrologically managed watershed. Our goal was to (1) understand how climate constrained the seasonal timing of water conditions necessary for juvenile fish to use nursery habitats and (2) inform management decisions about (a) mitigating climate‐mediated stress on nursery habitat function and (b) conserving heat‐constrained species in warming environments. Cool, wet winters deposited snow and cold water into mountains and reservoirs, which kept the lower watershed adequately cool for juveniles through the spring despite the region approaching its hot, dry summers. For every 1°C waters in April were colder, the juvenile fish population (1) inhabited the watershed 4–7 d longer and (2) entered marine waters, where survival is size selective, at maximum sizes 2.1 mm larger. Climate therefore appeared to constrain the nursery functions of this system by determining seasonal windows of tolerable rearing conditions, and cold water appeared to be a vital ecosystem component that promoted juvenile rearing. Fish in this system inhabit the southernmost extent of their range and already rear during the coolest part of the year, suggesting that a warming climate will truncate rather than shift their annual presence. Our findings are concerning for coldwater diadromous species in general because warming climates may constrain watershed use and diminish viability of life histories (e.g., late springtime rearing) and associated portfolio benefits over the long term. Lower watershed nurseries for coldwater fish in warming climates may be enhanced through allocating coldwater reservoir releases to prolong juvenile rearing periods downstream or restorations that facilitate colder conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warm, dry winters truncate timing and size distribution of seaward‐migrating salmon across a large, regulated watershed

Munsch

Greene

Johnson

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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“…For example, quantitative data exist on the abundance of adults and juveniles past RBDD in the Upper Sacramento River. Therefore, the Upper Sacramento River CM can now be used to develop focused studies and more fine-scale monitoring (e.g., establish monitoring immediately downstream of the SRWRC spawning area) to understand mechanisms and hypotheses that may contribute to variation in annual egg-tofry survival (Windell et al 2017, CM 1;Martin et al 2017). This framework is particularly relevant given that most SRWRC mortality (74%, average from 1996 to 2016) occurs within 50 miles upstream of the RBDD monitoring location (Poytress 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2) from fry at RBDD to spawners returning predominantly as 3-year-old adults (Windell et al 2017, CMs 2 -CM 7;Figures 3-5). Juvenile abundance estimates at RBDD bracket a relatively short timeperiod and narrow spatial extent in the life history of SRWRC, which has allowed researchers to identify key factors that affect egg-to-fry survival (Martin et al 2017). However, the second life-stage transition, from juveniles at RBDD to spawners, encompasses multiple years and hundreds of kilometers of the Sacramento River, Delta, San Francisco Bay, and Pacific Ocean.…”

Section: Example Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Science Advancements Key to Increasing Management Value of Life Stage Monitoring Networks for Endangered Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon in California

Johnson¹,

Windell²,

Brandes³

et al. 2017

SFEWS

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A robust monitoring network that provides quantitative information about the status of imperiled species at key life stages and geographic locations over time is fundamental for sustainable management of fisheries resources. For anadromous species, management actions in one geographic domain can substantially affect abundance of subsequent life stages that span broad geographic regions. Quantitative metrics (e.g., abundance, movement, survival, life history diversity, and condition) at multiple life stages are needed to inform how management actions (e.g., hatcheries, harvest, hydrology, and habitat restoration) influence salmon population dynamics. The existing monitoring network for endangered Sacramento River winterrun Chinook Salmon (SRWRC, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in California's Central Valley was compared to conceptual models developed for each life stage and geographic region of the life cycle to identify relevant SRWRC metrics. We concluded that the current monitoring network was insufficient to diagnose when (life stage) and where (geographic domain) chronic or episodic reductions in SRWRC cohorts occur, precluding within-and among-year comparisons. The strongest quantitative data exist in the Upper Sacramento River, where abundance estimates are generated for adult spawners and emigrating juveniles. However, once SRWRC leave the upper river, our knowledge of their identity,

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“…, Martin et al. ), as well as to increased or variable flows that can destroy eggs, modulate oxygen availability, or expose them to desiccation (Becker et al. , Lapointe et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling composite effects of marine and freshwater processes on migratory species

et al. 2019

Self Cite

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Life histories of migratory species such as anadromous fishes make them particularly susceptible to composite effects of processes experienced across distinct habitats and life stages. Therefore, their population dynamics are difficult to quantify and manage without tools such as life‐cycle models. As a model species for which life‐cycle modeling is particularly useful, we provide an analysis of influential processes affecting dynamics of the Central Valley fall‐run Chinook salmon (CVFC) population (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). This analysis demonstrates how, through identification of covariates that affect this population at each life stage and their relationship to one another, it is possible to identify actions that best promote sustainability for this anadromous species. We developed a life‐cycle model for CVFC examining primary processes influencing variability in observed patterns of escapement from 1988 to 2016. CVFC are a valuable fishery along the US West Coast; however, their natural population is a fraction of its historic size, and recent low escapements have resulted in substantial restrictions on the fishery. Our model explains 68.3% of variability in historic escapement values. The most influential processes include temperatures experienced during egg incubation, freshwater flow during juvenile outmigration, and environmentally mediated predation during early marine residence. This work demonstrates the need, and methodology, for considering the interactions between freshwater and marine dynamics when evaluating the efficacy of managerial practices in freshwater and the ocean, especially in the context of increased environmental variability, climate change, and dynamic predator populations. The methodology developed in this study can be used toward improved conservation and management of other anadromous fishes and migratory species.

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Phenomenological vs. biophysical models of thermal stress in aquatic eggs

Cited by 54 publications

References 29 publications

Warm, dry winters truncate timing and size distribution of seaward‐migrating salmon across a large, regulated watershed

Warm, dry winters truncate timing and size distribution of seaward‐migrating salmon across a large, regulated watershed

Science Advancements Key to Increasing Management Value of Life Stage Monitoring Networks for Endangered Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon in California

Modeling composite effects of marine and freshwater processes on migratory species

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