Abstract:Pollinators play an important role in terrestrial ecosystems by providing key ecosystem functions and services to wild plants and crops, respectively. The sustainable provision of such ecosystem functions and services requires diverse pollinator communities over the season. Despite evidence that climate warming shifts pollinator phenology, a general assessment of these shifts and their consequences on pollinator assemblages is still lacking. By analyzing phenological shifts of over 2000 species, we show that o… Show more
“…Most of the studies showed a simultaneous advance in the phenology of pollinators and plants over the studied period in parallel with increasing average temperatures, but alternative patterns (i.e. simultaneous delays or opposite shifts) have also been described [25,26]. Mismatches between the emergence of bee species and the blooming of their main resources have been specifically recorded [26].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Many phenological shifts have already been reported at the species level for the insect emergence (e.g. [24,25]) or blooming time of flowering plants (e.g. [13]).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Moreover, as these phenological shifts tend to be species specific for each species of the pollinator network, ecological communities are also disturbed. Duchenne et al [25] recently demonstrated that non-random phenological shifts of European pollinators reduce the redundancy and the functional complementarity of their assemblages. Such a decrease in redundancy might alter the robustness of plant-pollinator networks to ongoing pollinators' extinctions [10].…”
The mutualism between plants and their pollinators provides globally important ecosystem services, but it is likely to be disrupted by global warming that can cause mismatches between both halves of this interaction. In this review, we summarise the available evidence on (i) spatial or (ii) phenological shifts of one or both of the actors of this mutualism. While the occurrence of future spatial mismatches is predominantly theoretical and based on predictive models, there is growing empirical evidence of phenological mismatches occurring at the present day. Mismatches may also occur when pollinators and their host plants are still found together. These mismatches can arise due to (iii) morphological modifications and (iv) disruptions to host attraction and foraging behaviours, and it is expected that these mismatches will lead to novel community assemblages. Overall plant–pollinator interactions seem to be resilient biological networks, particularly because generalist species can buffer these changes due to their plastic behaviour. However, we currently lack information on where and why spatial mismatches do occur and how they impact the fitness of plants and pollinators, in order to fully assess if adaptive evolutionary changes can keep pace with global warming predictions.
“…Most of the studies showed a simultaneous advance in the phenology of pollinators and plants over the studied period in parallel with increasing average temperatures, but alternative patterns (i.e. simultaneous delays or opposite shifts) have also been described [25,26]. Mismatches between the emergence of bee species and the blooming of their main resources have been specifically recorded [26].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Many phenological shifts have already been reported at the species level for the insect emergence (e.g. [24,25]) or blooming time of flowering plants (e.g. [13]).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Moreover, as these phenological shifts tend to be species specific for each species of the pollinator network, ecological communities are also disturbed. Duchenne et al [25] recently demonstrated that non-random phenological shifts of European pollinators reduce the redundancy and the functional complementarity of their assemblages. Such a decrease in redundancy might alter the robustness of plant-pollinator networks to ongoing pollinators' extinctions [10].…”
The mutualism between plants and their pollinators provides globally important ecosystem services, but it is likely to be disrupted by global warming that can cause mismatches between both halves of this interaction. In this review, we summarise the available evidence on (i) spatial or (ii) phenological shifts of one or both of the actors of this mutualism. While the occurrence of future spatial mismatches is predominantly theoretical and based on predictive models, there is growing empirical evidence of phenological mismatches occurring at the present day. Mismatches may also occur when pollinators and their host plants are still found together. These mismatches can arise due to (iii) morphological modifications and (iv) disruptions to host attraction and foraging behaviours, and it is expected that these mismatches will lead to novel community assemblages. Overall plant–pollinator interactions seem to be resilient biological networks, particularly because generalist species can buffer these changes due to their plastic behaviour. However, we currently lack information on where and why spatial mismatches do occur and how they impact the fitness of plants and pollinators, in order to fully assess if adaptive evolutionary changes can keep pace with global warming predictions.
“…However, empirical estimations show an average advance of 11.5 days in 120 349 years (roughly 1 day per decade) for appearance of pollinators, and 9.5 days for plant 350 flowering in America [13]. Likewise, estimates for European pollinators suggest an 351 average phenological advancement of 6 days in 60 years (1 day per decade) [43]. Such predict an abrupt increase in extinction rates.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Likewise, [48] showed that early flowering produced lower pollination success and observed in some real life systems [43,52]. Additionally, between-community variability 380 in responses to phenological shifts poses the questions about which are the chief 381 determinants of these differences, species traits or connectivity patterns.…”
Plant-pollinator interactions are key for ecosystem maintenance and world crop production, and their occurrence depends on the synchronization of life-cycle events among interacting species. Phenological shifts observed for plant and pollinator species increase the risk of phenological mismatches, threatening community stability. However, the magnitudes and directions of phenological shifts present a high variability, both among communities and among species of the same community. Community-wide consequences of these different responses have not been explored. Additionally, variability in phenological and topological traits of species can affect their persistence probability under phenological changes. We explored the consequences of several scenarios of plant-pollinator phenological mismatches for community stability. We also assessed whether species attributes can predict species persistence under phenological mismatch. To this end, we used a dynamic model for plant-pollinator networks. The model incorporates active and latent life-cycle states of species and phenological dynamics regulating life-cycle transitions. Interaction structure and species phenologies were extracted from eight empirical plant-pollinator networks sampled at three locations during different periods. We found that for all networks and all scenarios, species persistence decreased with increasing magnitude of the phenological shift, for both advancements and delays in flowering phenologies. Changes in persistence depended on the scenario and the network being tested. However, all networks exhibited the lowest species persistence when the mean of the expected shift was equivalent to its standard deviation and this shift was greater than two weeks. Conversely, the highest species persistences occurred when earlier-flowering plants exhibited stronger shifts. Phenophase duration was the most important attribute as a driver of plant persistence. For pollinator persistence, species degree was the most important attribute, followed by phenophase duration. Our findings highlight the importance of phenologies on the stability and robustness of mutualistic networks.
Author summaryPlant-pollinator interactions involve a great number of species and are essential for the functioning of natural and agricultural systems. These interactions are facing a great March 31, 2020 1/15 number of threats. In both plants and pollinators, life-cycle events including flowering and adult emergence are triggered by environmental cues such as temperature and snowmelt. Climate change has the potential to alter the timing of these events. These phenological shifts generate mismatches in the timing of interacting species. Thus, plants and their pollinators may not match in time and/or space, leaving flowers unpollinated and disrupting pollinator feeding. Given that natural communities are composed of multiple species interacting in complex ways, experimentally assessing the effects of this kind of perturbation is difficult. To tackle this challenge, we simulated different ...
Global warming is affecting the phenological cycles of plants and animals, altering the complex synchronization that has co‐evolved over thousands of years between interacting species and trophic levels. Here, we examined how warmer winter conditions affect the timing of budburst in six common European trees and the hatching of a generalist leaf‐feeding insect, the spongy moth Lymantria dispar, whose fitness depends on the synchrony between egg hatch and leaf emergence of the host tree. We applied four different temperature treatments to L. dispar eggs and twig cuttings, that mimicked warmer winters and reduced chilling temperatures that are necessary for insect diapause and bud dormancy release, using heated open‐top chambers (ambient or +3.5°C), and heated greenhouses (maintained at >6°C or >10°C). In addition, we conducted preference and performance tests to determine which tree species the larvae prefer and benefit from the most. Budburst success and twig survival were highest for all tree species at ambient temperature conditions, whereas it declined under elevated winter temperature for Tilia cordata and Acer pseudoplatanus, likely due to a lack of chilling. While L. dispar egg hatch coincided with budburst in most tree species within 10 days under ambient conditions, it coincided with budburst only in Quercus robur, Carpinus betulus, and, to a lesser extent, Ulmus glabra under warmer conditions. With further warming, we, therefore, expect an increasing mismatch in trees with high chilling requirements, such as Fagus sylvatica and A. pseudoplatanus, but still good synchronization with trees having low chilling requirements, such as Q. robur and C. betulus. Surprisingly, first instar larvae preferred and gained weight faster when fed with leaves of F. sylvatica, while Q. robur ranked second. Our results suggest that spongy moth outbreaks are likely to persist in oak and hornbeam forests in western and central Europe.
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