Pest population dynamics are related to a continental overwintering gradient

Abstract

Overwintering success is an important determinant of arthropod populations that must be considered as climate change continues to influence the spatiotemporal population dynamics of agricultural pests. Using a long-term monitoring database and biologically relevant overwintering zones, we modeled the annual and seasonal population dynamics of a common pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), based on three overwintering suitability zones throughout North America using four decades of soil temperatures: the southern range (able to persist through winter), transitional zone (uncertain overwintering survivorship), and northern limits (unable to survive winter). Our model indicates H. zea population dynamics are hierarchically structured with continental-level effects that are partitioned into three geographic zones. Seasonal populations were initially detected in the southern range, where they experienced multiple large population peaks. All three zones experienced a final peak between late July (southern range) and mid-August to mid-September (transitional zone and northern limits). The southern range expanded by 3% since 1981 and is projected to increase by twofold by 2099 but the areas of other zones are expected to decrease in the future. These changes suggest larger populations may persist at higher latitudes in the future due to reduced low-temperature lethal events during winter. Because H. zea is a highly migratory pest, predicting when populations accumulate in one region can inform synchronous or lagged population development in other regions. We show the value of combining long-term datasets, remotely sensed data, and laboratory findings to inform forecasting of insect pests.

Study of the overwintering ecology of the hazelnut pest, Palomena prasina (L.) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in a perspective of Integrated Pest Management

“…Overwintering is an important driver of arthropod population dynamics (Lawton et al., 2022) and may be pivotal to developing alternative management programmes for insect pests. In this study, we investigated the almost unknown overwintering ecology of P. prasina , to explore new avenues for the development of IPM strategies against this important hazelnut pest.…”

Potential impact of climate change on Nearctic leafhopper distribution and richness in North America

“…This trend mirrors similar trends observed in other groups of crop pests, moving toward northern regions driven primarily by global warming 3 . This shift results in broader ranges for species distribution and overwintering zones 3,66,67 . Additionally, multiple lines of evidence support that most species in the Nearctic region are likely to adjust their geographic distribution to occupy areas that meet their specific needs 1,4,6,68 .…”

Beyond the present: How climate change is relevant to pest risk analysis

“…Conversely, warming beyond the upper optima can increase exposure to heat stress and associated heat stress‐induced mortality (Kikuchi et al., 2016; Musolin et al., 2010a; Robinet & Roques, 2010; Stange & Ayres, 2010). Since temperature strongly affects invertebrate population dynamics, global climate change will probably result in shifts in the geographic ranges for most of them, with some regions currently too cool for establishment becoming suitable (Battisti & Larsson, 2015; Bradshaw et al., 2019; Lawton et al., 2022). Such responses have already been observed (Table 1).…”