Perspectivas de adoção de modelos de Asset And Liability Management (ALM) em regimes próprios de previdência social

Abstract

Considering that data from the Social Security Secretariat of the Ministry of Finance show that the social security regimes themselves have been maintaining deficits all over the years, and that alternatives should be discussed in order to seek the financial and actuarial equilibrium of these regimes, the current study has as its general goal to analyze the perspectives of adopting an Asset and Liability Management (ALM) in its own social security regimes. In the process of structuring the modeling used for the RPPS, a content analysis of ALM models was made from the literature review, with the stochastic modeling of asset returns and inflation, selected assets that provided the actuarial target with their earnings and developed like an objective function, aiming to meet the regulatory constraints of RPPS. The findings of the study show that the adoption to ALM is feasible in own regimes, and that when apply the ALM model developed through multi-period stochastic programming in a real RPPS, it was verified that the adoption of the ALM provided an improvement in the marriage of flows of assets and liabilities of the RPPS, maximizing the previously obtained results without its use. Therefore, it is possible to infer that the ALM can be an important instrument for the sustainability of social security accounts, confirming the literature findings, which considers the adoption of the ALM can be presented as an enabling measure to make compatible the flow of financial availability at each moment of payment of the benefits in their office, besides assisting in the construction of investment policies that improve the risk and return relation of the investment portfolio of the RPPS.