Personalbedarfsprognose im Gesundheits- und Pflegewesen

Ehrhard, Tobias

doi:10.3726/978-3-653-04516-1

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 5 publications

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“…As a result, the working-age population decreases by "only" 4.7% by 2060 in the target model, whereas it shrinks by 13% in the level model and by as much as 23.4% in the rates model. Forecasts of the future demographic structure of the population are of similar importance to those of population size in many contexts, such as the labor market [22], pensions [24], long-term care [23], infrastructural planning in health [65], or education [66]. It is also of importance in epidemiology when forecasting the future prevalence of diseases that are more probable in old age, such as cancer [67] or neurodegenerative diseases [68].…”

Section: Exemplary Simulations Of Migration and The Labor Market In Germanymentioning

confidence: 99%

Migration Forecasting—Significance and Approaches

2021

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Migration is defined as the permanent change in an individual’s usual residence. Forecasting migration is an important requisite for population forecasts or for planning in fields that depend on the future size and structure of the population, such as economics, epidemiology, social insurance, or infrastructure. As migration is the most volatile of all demographic components, its modeling is especially difficult. International migration can be modeled and forecast very differently; users should be familiar with the flaws and strengths of these different approaches.

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