Persistent physics-based crisis management framework: A case study of traffic in the Nantes city due to flood exposure

Abstract

In the context of crisis, the characteristics of the crisis area and the operational measures of the community play key roles in managing the crisis. The Nantes ring road in France is always exposed to flooding and its disruptions. To anticipate the disruptions and timely preventive actions for this frequent phenomenon, the main challenges are (i) forecast of vehicles' flows, (ii) capacity of the ring road to handle the traffic (iii) evaluate the performance of alternate routes during the flooding. The flooded area as a system has components of (i) the flood (e.g. time of onset, magnitude, intensity, etc.), (ii) the area (e.g. geographical features, temporary perimeter barriers, dam, diversion canals), and (iii) the community (e.g. reaction time, emergency strain, evacuation delay). The chosen approach to conduct this anticipative study consists of collecting data about forecasts and using simulation models to work simultaneously on evaluating the performance of the ring road and its alternative routes.