PERSISTENT PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOR: TWO INFECTIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS 350 YEARS APART

Abstract

Outbreaks of infectious diseases bring behavior and policy responses into sharp focus since societies face acute constraints and uncertainties. This paper compares two infectious disease outbreaks: the Covid-19 pandemic and the 1665 London plague outbreak described by Daniel Defoe in A Journal of the Year of the Plague published in 1722. We compare three aspects: individual behavior, social behavior and governance and find striking similarities in behavior in spite of these events being separated by 350 years. We contend that the same models of behavior can be used to explain human responses during such outbreaks regardless of when they occur.

COVID-19, Alcohol Consumption and Stockpiling Practises in Midlife Women: Repeat Surveys During Lockdown in Australia and the United Kingdom

“…The intention to act in the future is indicated through the purchasing of specific items, with stockpiling suggesting purchase that exceeds current use, and fear of scarcity regarding future availability of alcohol. The phenomenon of stockpiling has been reported in other research into infectious disease outbreaks (41). Moreover, the stockpiling of other items including guns, toilet paper and gold, has also been associated with higher levels of COVID-related anxiety (42).…”

Covid-19 Pandemic and Human Behavioral Response

“…Human behavior, medical facilities, governance, and policy for the spread of the disease and social interactions influence the propagation of the pathogen. A pandemic affects global economic activity and people suffer its consequences together, so solutions must take social behavior into account (Dasgupta et al, 2021). With the advancement of our civilization, along with science and technology, we have modified the natural environment enormously, disrupting natural ecosystem services with dramatic changes in transport, trade, and commerce.…”

“…It is difficult to conduct a cost-benefit analysis amidst such uncertainties. The heuristic and biases program of Kahneman et al (1982) (Gilovich et al, 2002;Tversky and Kahneman., 1974) are all in line that when it comes to deal with the uncertainty, decision-makers often succumb to various fallacies and biases rely on cognitive heuristics that may produce suboptimal decisions in some cases (Dasgupta et al, 2021).…”

Disrupted Class, Undisrupted Learning: A Study on the Effect of Online Learning Among Primary and Middle School Students

“…So, their behaviours are more likely to be characterized by procedural rationality. Dasgupta et al (2021) showed that in the early stages of the pandemic, some people may not be aware of the severity of the disease and unable to ensure ‘social distance’, which will greatly increase the risk of infection. Fortunately, when the pandemic broke out, the Chinese government and education departments quickly formulated a procedural rationality policy on online learning, which not only guaranteed the normal teaching progress but also solved the problem of maintaining ‘social distancing’ and reducing the risk of infection.…”

“…Fortunately, when the pandemic broke out, the Chinese government and education departments quickly formulated a procedural rationality policy on online learning, which not only guaranteed the normal teaching progress but also solved the problem of maintaining ‘social distancing’ and reducing the risk of infection. On the other hand, as Dasgupta et al (2021) showed, the behaviours of countries, sectors of the economy and individuals were similarly in the face of uncertain factors like during the pandemic. Therefore, the education department is likely to choose online education again, to overcome such similar uncertain factors with procedural rationality.…”