Persistence of a reef fish metapopulation via network connectivity: theory and data

Dedrick, Allison G.; Catalano, Katrina A.; Stuart, Michelle; White, J. Wilson; Montes, Humberto R.; Pinsky, Malin L.

doi:10.1111/ele.13721

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Accordingly, removing weaker edges resulted in a fragmented sparsely connected network 25 . Furthermore, coral reef fish larval connectivity patterns and large volatility in temporal dispersal have critical implications for the persistence and management of populations 20 , 58 , e.g. with stability arising from volatility 57 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The El Niño Southern Oscillation drives multidirectional inter-reef larval connectivity in the Great Barrier Reef

Gurdek-Bas

Benthuysen

Harrison

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest source of interannual global climate variability, and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase in frequency under climate change. Interannual variability in the Coral Sea circulation has been associated with ENSO, although uncertainty remains regarding ENSO's influence on hydrodynamics and larval dispersal in the adjacent Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We investigated larval connectivity during ENSO events from 2010 to 2017 throughout the GBR, based on biophysical modelling of a widespread predatory reef fish, Lutjanus carponotatus. Our results indicate a well-connected system over the study period with high interannual variability in inter-reef connectivity associated with ENSO. Larval connectivity patterns were highly correlated to variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). During El Niño conditions and periods of weak SOI, larval dispersal patterns were predominantly poleward in the central and southern regions, reversing to a predominant equatorward flow during very strong SOI and extreme La Niña conditions. These ENSO-linked connectivity patterns were associated with positive connectivity anomalies among reefs. Our findings identify ENSO as an important source of variation in larval dispersal and connectivity patterns in the GBR, which can influence the stability of population dynamics and patterns of biodiversity in the region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The El Niño Southern Oscillation drives multidirectional inter-reef larval connectivity in the Great Barrier Reef

Gurdek-Bas

Benthuysen

Harrison

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…The dispersal kernel has been long recognized as a useful approach to quantify dispersal patterns of plant seeds, insects, and fish larvae (Almany et al, 2017;Ayata et al, 2010;Catalano et al, 2021;Collin et al, 2013;Cowen & Sponaugle, 2009;D'Aloia et al, 2015;Dedrick et al, 2021;Hrycik et al, 2013;Nathan, 2006;Shi et al, 2020Shi et al, , 2021Shi et al, , 2022. Genetic-based approaches only measure successful dispersal to define the dispersal kernel as the probability density function (p.d.f.)…”

Section: Development Of a Recruitment Kernelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Larval “Recruitment Kernel” to Predict Hatching Locations and Quantify Recruitment Patterns

Shi,

Boegman,

Shan

et al. 2024

Water Resources Research

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Larval recruitment, a critical component of population connectivity, has been under investigated compared to larval dispersal. We developed a backward‐in‐time Lagrangian particle tracking model to predict larval hatching locations and proposed a larval recruitment kernel, to quantify recruitment patterns. Combining field data and a hydrodynamic model, our backtracking model predicted Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) hatching locations in Lake Erie. We found a strong linear correlation (r = 0.95–0.98) between travel distance (i.e., distance along a trajectory) and pelagic larval duration (PLD), and a moderate correlation (r = 0.66–0.68) between linear distance (i.e., displacement) and PLD. This questions the wide use of PLD as a proxy for dispersal distance. We defined the recruitment kernel using the probability density function of the linear recruitment distance. Characteristics of the recruitment kernel, such as theoretical self‐recruitment, median‐recruitment distance, long‐distance recruitment, and openness convey significant information about population connectivity that are distinct from those derived using the well‐known dispersal kernel (e.g., theoretical local retention).

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“…While our metapopulation persistence model makes several simplifying assumptions, it demonstrates how dispersal influences persistence, and the resulting patterns match known fundamental network characteristics that generate persistence. Essentially, persistence depends on the connectivity between MPAs forming loops so that a supply of larvae "return" to the origin population from multi-generational and multi-patch movement (Hastings & Botsford 2006, Artzy-Randrup & Stone 2010, Dedrick et al 2021). An isolated population can therefore persist only if larval retention and survival exceed adult mortality (Burgess et al 2014)…”

Section: Evaluating Mpa Network Coherence For Multiple Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying marine larval dispersal to assess MPA network connectivity and inform future national and transboundary planning efforts

Cristiani

Rubidge

Thompson

et al. 2023

Preprint

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A Marine Protected Area (MPA) network, in which multiple reserves are designated in a region, can promote the protection of biodiversity across space. To be effective as a network, the design must consider whether MPAs are likely to be connected through the movement of individuals of species of interest. Additionally, network design may explicitly incorporate design features that promote biodiversity in unprotected habitats through the dispersal or spillover of multiple species. Patterns of dispersal and the ability of MPAs to function as an interacting network, however, are difficult to estimate at broad and transboundary spatial scales, and therefore connectivity is often not fully integrated in the design and assessment of MPA networks. Here, we model the dispersal of multiple nearshore species to estimate the potential connectivity of the existing MPAs in British Columbia, Canada, including connections to MPAs in the United States by simulating dispersal using a biophysical model with regional oceanographic currents. We found that MPAs in BC potentially meet connectivity design criteria for nearshore invertebrate species: the majority of MPAs (65-90%) are likely to exchange individuals (i.e. functional connectivity) and support persistent metapopulations, and more than half the unprotected coast (55-85%) receives a large proportion of the larvae produced in MPAs. Furthermore, we found that species' dispersal abilities and the level of exposure of an MPA to open ocean can predict dispersal distance when we account for the random effects of dispersal location and season. Therefore, future predictions of connectivity are possible based on these core biological and physical attributes, without running new simulations. Together, these analyses provide a robust and novel assessment of multi-species connectivity that can support the design of new MPAs with transboundary connectivity on the northwest coast of North America.

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Persistence of a reef fish metapopulation via network connectivity: theory and data

Cited by 10 publications

References 66 publications

The El Niño Southern Oscillation drives multidirectional inter-reef larval connectivity in the Great Barrier Reef

The El Niño Southern Oscillation drives multidirectional inter-reef larval connectivity in the Great Barrier Reef

A Larval “Recruitment Kernel” to Predict Hatching Locations and Quantify Recruitment Patterns

Quantifying marine larval dispersal to assess MPA network connectivity and inform future national and transboundary planning efforts

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